USDINR opened at 74.19 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 74.02-74.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.25, loss of 2 ps USD as against prior close of 74.27. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.15 on 18/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.31, loss of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.45. Oct Euro/INR closed at 84.40, GBP/INR at 100.36 and Yen/INR at 65.15. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.67% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (18/11)|
In NOV, FII’S have net sold Rs 9999 cr in Cash Equity segment and have net bought Rs 5485 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 14593 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 23057 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 134 points (-0.75%). DOW declined 268 points on Friday (0.75%). Nikkei was UP 0.50% and Hang seng declined 1.07% .
Euro is now at 1.1281, Pound at 1.3449, Yen at 114.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1847 and WT1Crude at USD 75.70/Brent at USD 78.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.55% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.36%.
Economic news: Dovish comments from ECB Chief and return of lock downs in parts of Euro pressured Euro further. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank focus on “medium term, not on current inflation numbers”. “When inflation pressure is expected to fade – as is the case today – it does not make sense to react by tightening policy,” she added. “The tightening would not affect the economy until after the shock has already passed.”
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims rose marginally to 268k and Phily Fed mfrg index climbed to 39.
-UK retail sales climbed 0.8% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – US existing home sales
-EU Consumer confidence
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.52. 50 day moving average is at 74.43.200 day moving average is at 73.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 74.58 and important support is at 73.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 74.25, S1:74.12, S2:73.94, R1:74.44, R2:74.57
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at 74.15.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 86.85+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1535. Next major support is at 1.1250. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3350 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3350. Important resistance is at 1.3650/1.3840.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 115. Next important resistance is at 115. Important support is at 112.70
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