FX MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 74.38 on y’day and the pair traded in the 74.31-74.49 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.48, gain of 4 ps USD as against prior close of 74.44. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.35 on 15/11Nov USD/INR closed at 74.57, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.58. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.41, GBP/INR at 100.12 and Yen/INR at 65.53. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a.  FX reserves is at USD 640 bn.

PAIRS RBI REF RATE (15/11)
USDINR 74.35
EURINR 85.18
GBPINR 99.86
JPYINR 65.38

In NOV, FII’S have net sold Rs 4404 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 6231 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 8998 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 23803 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW closed flat y’day (0.00%). Nikkei was up 0.56% and Hang seng climbed 0.25% .

Euro is now at 1.1377, Pound at 1.3424, Yen at 114.15.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1866 and WT1Crude at USD 79.80/Brent at USD 82.20.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.599% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.37%.

Economic news: IIP climbed 3.1% as low base effect waned off. Mfrg sector grew by 2.7%. Mining grew by 8.6% and capital goods sector grew by 1.3%. Consumer durables sector contracted by 2%. CPI rose marginally to 4.48% in Oct. Food inflation inched higher to 0.85%.

Data highlights: – US NY mfrg index

Tuesday’s calendar: – US retail sales and industrial production

-EU GDP

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change

USD/INR      74.49 74.31
EUR/USD     1.1377 1.1462 1.1433
GBP/USD     1.3424 ` 1.3427 1.3354
USD/JPY     114.24 114.31 113.76

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1396 1.1435 1.1503 1.1542 1.1328 1.1289 1.1221
GBP/USD 1.3421 1.3439 1.3467 1.3486 1.3393 1.3375 1.3346
USD/JPY 114.03 114.31 114.48 114.76 113.85 113.58 113.40
USD/INR 74.43 74.54 74.60   74.37 74.26  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1535/1.17 DN UP>1.17
GBP/USD 1.33 1.3650/1.3835 DN UP>1.3850
USD/JPY 113.25/112.10 114.70 UP SIDE<112.10
USD/INR 74.25 74.55/74.70 DN UP>74.55
USD/CHF 0.91 0.9370 DN UP>0.9250

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.86. 50 day moving average is at 74.20.200 day moving average is at 73.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 74.70 and important support is at 73.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 74.52, S1:74.44, S2:74.31, R1:74.65, R2:74.73             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done  at 74.15.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 86.85+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.17. Next major support is at 1.1250. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3835 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.33. Important resistance is at 1.3650/1.3840.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.70. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10.

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