USDINR opened at 74.38 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.37-74.54 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.44, loss of 7 ps USD as against prior close of 74.51. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.47 on 12/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.58, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.56. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.37, GBP/INR at 99.89 and Yen/INR at 65.38. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a. FX reserves is at USD 640 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (12/11) |
| USDINR | 74.47 |
| EURINR | 85.22 |
| GBPINR | 99.56 |
| JPYINR | 65.18 |
In NOV, FII’S have net sold Rs 4404 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 6231 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 8998 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 23803 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.28% on Friday. DOW climbed 179 points (0.50%). Nikkei was up 1.13% and Hang seng climbed 0.32% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1444, Pound at 1.3418, Yen at 113.92.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1867 and WT1Crude at USD 80.70/Brent at USD 82.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.57% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.37%.
Economic news: USD gained against majors last week. US retail sales is the focus data event from US. Indian IIP and CPI data are awaited.
Data highlights: – EU industrial production declined -0.2% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – US NY mfrg index
| USD/INR | 74.54 | 74.37 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1444 | 1.1462 | 1.1433 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3418 | ` | 1.3427 | 1.3354 |
| USD/JPY | 113.92 | 114.31 | 113.76 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1446 | 1.1459 | 1.1475 | 1.1430 | 1.1417 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3399 | 1.3445 | 1.3472 | 1.3371 | 1.3327 | ||
| USD/JPY | 114 | 114.24 | 114.55 | 113.69 | 113.45 | ||
| USD/INR | 74.45 | 74.53 | 74.62 | 74.36 | 74.28 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1250 | 1.1535/1.17 | DN | UP>1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | 1.3650/1.3835 | DN | UP>1.3850 |
| USD/JPY | 113.25/112.10 | 114.70 | UP | SIDE<112.10 |
| USD/INR | 74.25 | 74.55/74.70 | DN | UP>74.55 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91 | 0.9370 | DN | UP>0.9250 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.86. 50 day moving average is at 74.20.200 day moving average is at 73.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 74.70 and important support is at 73.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 74.55, S1:74.46, S2:74.34, R1:74.67, R2:74.76
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at 74.15.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 86.85+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.17. Next major support is at 1.1250. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3835 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.33. Important resistance is at 1.3650/1.3840.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.70. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10
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