FX MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 73.90 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.84-74.10 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.03, loss of 1 ps USD as against prior close of 74.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.92 on 09/11Nov USD/INR closed at 74.21, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.25. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.05, GBP/INR at 100.85 and Yen/INR at 65.78. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.70% p.a.  FX reserves is at USD 640 bn.

PAIRS RBI REF RATE (08/11)
USDINR 73.92
EURINR 85.78
GBPINR 100.35
JPYINR 65.52

In Oct, FII’S have net sold Rs 12205 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1816 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 4994 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 17572 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.13% y’day. DOW declined 112 points (0.31%). Nikkei was down 0.75% and Hang seng climbed 0.20% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1594, Pound at 1.3548, Yen at 112.84.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1831 and WT1Crude at USD 84.40/Brent at USD 85.10.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.46% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.29%.

Economic news: Rupee declined from intraday high of 73.84 due to refund of over subscription of an earlier IPO. Pay TM IPO inflows is still expected. Crude oil prices surged again as inventories fell, implying tight supplies, rising demand and easing of international travel restrictions.

Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.6% m/m.

-EU and German Zew survey jumped to 25.9 and 31.7 respectively.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US CPI and weekly jobless claims

USD/INR      74.09 73.84
EUR/USD     1.1594 1.1608 1.1570
GBP/USD     1.3548 ` 1.3606 1.3525
USD/JPY     112.85 113.26 112.72

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1591 1.1612 1.1629 1.1650 1.1574 1.1553 1.1536
GBP/USD 1.3563 1.3601 1.3644 1.3683 1.3520 1.3482 1.3439
USD/JPY 112.97 113.22 113.51 113.75 112.68 112.43 112.14
USD/INR 73.99 74.13 74.24   73.89 73.74  

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1525/1.1475 1.17 DN UP>1.1910
GBP/USD 1.3410 1.3650/1.3835 SIDE UP>1.40
USD/JPY 113.25/112.10 114.70 UP SIDE<112.10
USD/INR 73.90 74.30/74.70 DN UP>74.70
USD/CHF 0.90/09.8925 0.9240/0.9370 DN UP>0.9250

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.91. 50 day moving average is at 74.20.200 day moving average is at 73.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 74.30/74.70 and important support is at 73.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 74.15, S1:74.06, S2:73.91, R1:74.30, R2:74.39             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done  at 73.90/73.40.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 86.85+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.17. Next major support is at 1.1525/1.1480. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3835 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3410. Important resistance is at 1.3650/1.3840.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.70. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10.

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FX MORNING UPDATE  

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