USDINR opened at 75.02 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.83-75.04 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.87, loss of 1 ps USD as against prior close of 74.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.92 on 01/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 75.17, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.12. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87, GBP/INR at 102.62 and Yen/INR at 65.86. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a. FX reserves is at USD 640 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (01/11)|
In Oct, FII’S have net sold Rs 12205 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1816 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 4994 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 17572 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.46% y’day. DOW climbed 89 points (0.25%). Nikkei was up 2.61% and Hang seng declined 1.07% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1598, Pound at 1.3653, Yen at 114.06.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1791 and WT1Crude at USD 84.25/Brent at USD 85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.57% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.36%.
Economic news: Indian PMI(mfrg) climbed to 55.9 in Oct vs 53.7 in Sept. GST collections touched Rs 1.3 lac Cr in Oct, the second highest revenue month since GST launch. Focus is on US FOMC meeting.
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) climbed to 60.8 and Construction spending declined -0.5% m/m.
-German retail sales declined -2.5% m/m.
-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 57.8.
Tuesday’s calendar: – EU PMI(mfrg)
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.87. 50 day moving average is at 74.19.200 day moving average is at 73.70. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 75.16/75.68 and important support is at 74.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 75.17, S1:75.05, S2:74.95, R1:75.28, R2:75.39
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done . Exports can be hedged at 75.50+.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.17. Next major support is at 1.1525/1.1480. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1525. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3835 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3650/1.3410. Important resistance is at 1.3840.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.70. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10.
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