USDINR opened at 74.80 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.75-74.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.88, loss of 4 ps USD as against prior close of 74.92. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.79 on 29/10Nov USD/INR closed at 75.12, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.29. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.57, GBP/INR at 103.56 and Yen/INR at 66.06. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.60% p.a.  FX reserves is at USD 640 bn.

USDINR 74.79
EURINR 87.26
GBPINR 103.11
JPYINR 65.86

In Oct, FII’S have net sold Rs 12205 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1816 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 4994 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 17572 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.04% on Friday. DOW climbed 89 points (0.25%). Nikkei was up 0.25% and Hang seng declined 0.70% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.1558, Pound at 1.3678, Yen at 114.01.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1785 and WT1Crude at USD 83.25/Brent at USD 83.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.56% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.36%.

Economic news: Dollar index stayed strong on rebound after drawing support from 55 day EMA (now at 93.38). Euro lost steam after Thursday’s rally as ECB is set to lag behind Fed in QE tapering.

Data highlights: – US Personal income declined -1% m/m, spending climbed 0.6% m/m, Core PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg) and Construction spending

-German retail sales

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR      74.98 74.75
EUR/USD     1.1558 1.1690 1.1535
GBP/USD     1.3678 ` 1.3805 1.3668
USD/JPY     114.01 114.10 113.39

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1594 1.1713  1.1749    1.1498 1.1403  
GBP/USD 1.3717 1.3766  1.3854    1.3629 1.3580  
USD/JPY 113.83 114.27  114.54    113.56 113.12  
USD/INR 74.87 74.99 75.10   74.76 74.64


Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1525/1.1475 1.17 DN UP>1.1910
GBP/USD 1.3655/1.3410 1.3835 SIDE UP>1.39
USD/JPY 113.25/112.10 114.70 UP SIDE<112.10
USD/INR 74.70/74.30 75.05/75.16/75.67 UP DN<74.70
USD/CHF 0.9150 0.9370 UP DN<0.91

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.87. 50 day moving average is at 74.18.200 day moving average is at 73.70. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 75.16/75.68 and important support is at 74.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 75.11, S1:74.98, S2:74.85, R1:75.24, R2:75.37             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done . Exports can be hedged at 75.50+.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87+.


EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.17. Next major support is at 1.1525/1.1480. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1525. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3835 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3650/1.3410. Important resistance is at 1.3840.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.70. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10

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