USDINR opened at 74.98 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.90-75.13 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.08, gain of 14 ps USD as against prior close of 74.89. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.02 on 25/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 75.10, gain of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.89. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.29, GBP/INR at 103.38 and Yen/INR at 66.05. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.55% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (25/10)|
In Oct, FII’S have net bought Rs 962 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 2051 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 6249 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 17337 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW climbed 64 points (0.13%). Nikkei was down 0.71% and Hang seng closed flat y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1607, Pound at 1.3768, Yen at 113.87.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1807 and WT1Crude at USD 83.81/Brent at USD 84.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.64% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.35%.
Economic news: Euro declined on weak economic projections by German Central bank. Bundesbank said in the monthly report that inflation in Germany “continue to rise before it gradually declines in the coming year.” The economy is expected to be“significantly weaker” in Q4. Strong momentum in service sector is “likely to subside considerably” too. Manufacturing is likely to “continue to suffer from delivery problems.
Data highlights: – German Ifo business survey showed a marginal decline to 97.7.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US House price index and new home sales
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 74.71. 50 day moving average is at 74.14.200 day moving average is at 73.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.68. Important resistance is at 75.16/75.68 and important support is at 74.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 75.04, S1:74.98, S2:74.90, R1:75.13, R2:75.18
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 74.70. Exports can be hedged at 75.50.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1670/1.1710. Next major support is at 1.1530/1.1480. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1525. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3650/1.3410. Important resistance is at 1.3840.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.10. Next important resistance is at 114.70. Important support is at 112.10.
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