06/08/2018
USDINR opened at 68.69 on Friday and the pair traded in the 68.60-68.84 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.60, loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.70.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.79. Aug USD/INR closed at 68.79, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.89. Aug Euro/INR closed at 79.94, GBP/INR at 89.76 and Yen/INR at 61.73.
FII’S have sold Rs 828 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have bought Rs 2146 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 1200 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 38993 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.03% on Friday. DOW climbed 136 points (0.54%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.06% and Hang seng declined 0.14% y’day.
Euro closed the week at 1.1568, Pound at 1.2992,Yen at 111.28.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1221 and WT1Crude at USD 68.65.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.96% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.76%.
Economic news: U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%.Consensus was for 193k jobs. The net revisions over the previous two months were +59,000, compensating for below par July data. Wage gains were in-line with expectations, rising 0.3% over last month and 2.7% over last year. US trade deficit widened by USD 3.2 to USD 46.3 bn in June.
Data Highlights : -US ISM(non mfrg) declined to 55.7.
-EU PMI(services) dipped to 54.2, and retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m.
-UK PMI(services) declined to 53.5.
Monday’s calendar: -EU sentix investor confidence
| USD/INR | 68.84 | 68.60 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1568 | 1.1611 | 1.1559 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2992 | 1.3045 | 1.2975 |
| USD/JPY | 111.28 | 111.73 | 111.34 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1579 | 1.1599 | 1.1631 | 1.1547 | 1.1527 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3004 | 1.3033 | 1.3074 | 1.2963 | 1.2934 | ||
| USD/JPY | 111.59
|
111.84 | 111.98 | 112.23
|
111.45 | 111.20 | 111.06
|
| USD/INR | 68.68 | 68.76 | 68.92 | 68.52 | 68.44 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2957/1.2770 | 1.3215/1.3365/1.3475 | DN | SIDE>1.3215 |
| USD/JPY | 110.20/109.20 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109 |
| USD/INR | 68.30 | 69.10 | UP | SIDE<68.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9850/0.9785 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.72. 50 day moving average is at 68.22. 200 day moving average is at 65.81. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.10 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.87,S1:68.70, S2:68.62, R1:68.95, R2:69.12.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3215 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3215 and later at 1.3365/1.3475. Important support is at 1.2957 and later at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 113. Next important support is at 110.20 and later at 109.20. Important resistance is 113.
