USDINR opened at 74.16 and the pair traded in the 74.09-74.26 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.15, gain of 11 ps USD as against prior close of 74.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.15 on 29/09. Oct USD/INR closed at 74.47, gain of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.31. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.62, GBP/INR at 100.46 and Yen/INR at 66.52. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.40% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 640 bn.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (29/09) |
| USDINR | 74.15 |
| EURINR | 86.62 |
| GBPINR | 100.46 |
| JPYINR | 66.87 |
In Sept, FII’S have net bought Rs 8773 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4548 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 6398 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 12413 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.21% y’day. DOW climbed 90 points (0.26%). Nikkei was down 2.12% and Hang seng climbed 0.67% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1605, Pound at 1.3444, Yen at 111.91.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1729 and WT1Crude at USD 75/Brent at USD 78.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.51% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.
Economic news: USDINR pulled back from 74.26. Euro broke through 1.1660 support levels. Pound declined steeply below 1.35, as gas shortage seems to be crippling UK’S daily life. Supply disruptions in Norway and Russian pipelines and higher demand from China due to carbon neutrality policy have contributed to trebling of Natural gas prices in the last few weeks.
Data highlights: – US pending home sales climbed 8.1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and GDP (final)
| USD/INR | 74.26 | 74.09 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1605 | 1.1690 | 1.1589 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3444 | 1.3555 | 1.3412 | |
| USD/JPY | 111.91 | 112.05 | 111.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1627 | 1.1665 | 1.1728 | 1.1765 | 1.1564 | 1.1526 | 1.1463 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3465 | 1.3518 | 1.3608 | 1.3661 | 1.3375 | 1.3322 | 1.3233 |
| USD/JPY | 111.73 | 112.25 | 112.58 | 113.10 | 111.41 | 110.88 | 110.56 |
| USD/INR | 74.16 | 74.24 | 74.33 | 74.06 | 73.99 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1665 | 1.18/1.1910 | DN | UP>1.1910 |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | 1.39 | DN | UP>1.39 |
| USD/JPY | 109.10/108.75 | 111.60 | UP | DN<109.10 |
| USD/INR | 73.93/73.82/73.74 | 74.50 | UP | DN<73.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.92/0.91 | 0.9375/0.9475 | UP | DN<0.91 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 100,200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 73.56. 50 day moving average is at 73.97.200 day moving average is at 73.57. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.92. Important resistance is at 74.50 and important support is at 73.93/73.82/73.74. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 74.41 S1:74.34, S2:74.22, R1:74.53, R2:74.60
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 73.85/73.75.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 86.75.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.18/1.1910. Next major support is at 1.1665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.19. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.39 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.39.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.10. Next important resistance is at 111.60. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.
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