USDINR opened at 73.69 and the pair traded in the 73.61-73.84 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.84, gain of 14 ps USD as against prior close of 73.70. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.65 on 27/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.85, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.77. Sep Euro/INR closed at 86.42, GBP/INR at 101.20 and Yen/INR at 66.55. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.38% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 640 bn.

In Sept, FII’S have net bought Rs 8773 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4548 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 6398 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 12413 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.01% y’day. DOW climbed 71 points (0.21%). Nikkei was down 0.03% and Hang seng climbed 0.07% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1686, Pound at 1.3691, Yen at 111.03.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1747 and WT1Crude at USD 75.33/Brent at USD 78.53.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.48% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.

Economic news: ECB President said,” It is evident that the economic recovery in the euro area is increasingly advanced”. Policymakers expected “continued strong growth” in H2, “enabling euro area output to exceed its pre-pandemic level by the end of the year”. GDP is expected to climb to 5% this year and decline modestly to 4.6% in 2022. Inflation is expected to be higher at 3%, but it is likely to be transitory.

Data highlights: – US durables order rose 1.8% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US house price index and consumer confidence

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 100 day major moving averages, but above 20 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.46. 50 day moving average is at 74.200 day moving average is at 73.57. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.92. Important resistance is at 73.95 and important support is at 73.33. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 73.78, S1:73.69, S2:73.53, R1:73.94, R2:74.03              

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 73.50/73.30.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.18/1.1910. Next major support is at 1.1665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.19. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.39 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.39.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.10. Next important resistance is at 111.60. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.

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