03/08/2018
USDINR opened at 68.39 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.27-68.72 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.70, gain of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.43.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.35. Rupee declined reversing prior day gains due to intensification of global trade war. Aug USD/INR closed at 68.89, gain of 25 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.64. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.20, GBP/INR at 90.31 and Yen/INR at 61.86.
FII’S have sold Rs 81 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1242 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 1457 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 42560 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.89% y’day. DOW declined 7 points (0.03%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 1.03% and Hang seng declined 2.21% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1590, Pound at 1.3018,Yen at 111.65.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1216 and WT1Crude at USD 69.12
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.986% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.70%.
Economic news: The Monetary Policy Committee members of the Bank of England stood all united while voting unanimously in favor of the Bank rate increase by 25 basis point to 0.75% in August. The rate hike is justified by tight UK labor market and inflation above 2% throughout the next two years. While the Bank of England remained fairly upbeat on the economic growth, its outlook for further policy moves remained conservative.
Focus is on US employment data and ISM(non mfrg).
Data Highlights : : US weekly jobless claims declined to 218k and factory orders climbed 0.7% m/m.
-EU PPI climbed 0.4% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 55.8.
Friday’s calendar: US nonfarm payrolls, ISM(non mfrg), trade balance
-EU PMI(services) and retail sales
-UK PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 68.72 | 68.27 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1590 | 1.1667 | 1.1582 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3018 | 1.3125 | 1.3014 |
| USD/JPY | 111.65 | 111.73 | 111.34 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1611 | 1.1640 | 1.1696 | 1.1725 | 1.1555 | 1.1526 | 1.1470 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3052 | 1.3090 | 1.3163 | 1.3201 | 1.2979 | 1.2941 | 1.2868 |
| USD/JPY | 111.59
|
111.84 | 111.98 | 112.23
|
111.45 | 111.20 | 111.06
|
| USD/INR | 68.56 | 68.85 | 69.01 | 68.40 | 68.11 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2957/1.2770 | 1.3365/1.3475/1.3650 | DN | SIDE>1.3365 |
| USD/JPY | 110.20/109.20 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109 |
| USD/INR | 68.30 | 69.70 | UP | SIDE<68.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9785/0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.71. 50 day moving average is at 68.22. 200 day moving average is at 65.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.10 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.75,S1:68.59, S2:68.31, R1:69.04, R2:69.19.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2957 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.2957 and later at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 113. Next important support is at 110.20 and later at 109.20. Important resistance is 113.
