FX MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 73.67 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.48-73.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.49, loss of 20 ps USD as against prior close of 73.69. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.67 on 15/09Sep USD/INR closed at 73.58, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.79. Sep Euro/INR closed at 87.02, GBP/INR at 101.69 and Yen/INR at 67.35. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.35% p.a.

PAIRS RBI REF RATE (15/09)
USDINR 73.67
EURINR 86.98
GBPINR 101.79
JPYINR 67.27

In Sept, FII’S have net bought Rs 236 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 1310 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 2139 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 9175 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.80% y’day. DOW climbed 236 points (0.66%). Nikkei was down 0.52% and Hang seng declined 1.84% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1819, Pound at 1.3845, Yen at 109.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1794 and WT1Crude at USD 72.45/Brent at USD 75.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.29% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.18%.

Economic news: Indian Govt announced PLI scheme for auto, auto components and drone manufacturing. PLI scheme is around Rs 25938 Cr and aimed at incentivizing high value and high tech automotive technology. Govt expects Rs 42500 Cr of investment over 5 years with 7.5lacs job creation. FDI in telecom was increased to 100% and spectrum sharing, surrendering have been permitted. Telecom companies’ spectrum payment has been given moratorium of 4 years. The moratorium comes with a Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) + 2 percent, making it revenue-neutral for the government. Govt also announced spectrum auction calendar and the tenure of spectrum has been increased to 30 years.

Data highlights: – US industrial production climbed 0.4% m/m.

-EU industrial production climbed 1.5% m/m.

-UK CPI rose 3.2% y/y, RPI climbed 4.8% y/y and PPI(output) climbed 0.7% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims, retail sales and Phily Fed mfrg index.

USD/INR      73.71 73.57
EUR/USD     1.1819 1.1833 1.1800
GBP/USD     1.3845 1.3854 1.3793
USD/JPY     109.37 109.75 109.11

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1817 1.1834 1.1850 1.1867 1.1801 1.1784 1.1768
GBP/USD 1.3832 1.3871 1.3894 1.3933 1.3810 1.3770 1.3748
USD/JPY 109.42 109.73 110.05 110.36 109.09 108.79 108.46
USD/INR 73.65 73.73 73.79   73.60 73.51  

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1800/1.1665 1.1910/1.20 DN UP>1.19
GBP/USD 1.3725/1.36 1.39 SIDE DN<1.3725
USD/JPY 109.10/108.75 110.80/111.60 UP DN<108.70
USD/INR 73.30 73.85 DN UP>73.85
USD/CHF 0.91/0.9010 0.9240 UP DN<0.91

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.71. 50 day moving average is at 74.15.200 day moving average is at 73.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important resistance is at 73.74/73.85 and important support is at 73.30. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 73.64, S1:73.45, S2:73.33, R1:73.76, R2:73.95              

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 73.30/73.15. USD exports can be hedged at 73.70. If 73.85 is broken, hedging can be deferred.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.1910/1.20. Next major support is at 1.18/1.1665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1665. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages, but below 100 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.36 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3725 and later at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.39.

USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.46. Next important resistance is at 110.50/110.80. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.

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