USDINR opened at 73.62 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.57-73.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.69, gain of 1 ps USD as against prior close of 73.68. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.62 on 14/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.79, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.85. Sep Euro/INR closed at 87.18, GBP/INR at 102.29 and Yen/INR at 67.03. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.35% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (13/09)|
In Sept, FII’S have net bought Rs 236 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 1310 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 2139 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 9175 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.14% y’day. DOW declined 292 points (0.84%). Nikkei was up 0.73% and Hang seng declined 1.21% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1815, Pound at 1.3845, Yen at 110.11.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1804 and WT1Crude at USD 70.80/Brent at USD 73.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.333% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.177%.
Economic news: Indian Exports climbed 45.8% in August to touch USD 33.28 bn. Imports climbed to USD 47.09 bn. Trade deficit was higher at USD 13.81 bn. Exports in Apr-Aug period stands at USD 164.2 bn.
US CPI rose less than expected and triggered mild USD decline against Euro. Sterling broke important resistance levels.
Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.3% m/m.
-UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.6%.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US industrial production, NY mfrg index
-EU industrial production
-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.71. 50 day moving average is at 74.16.200 day moving average is at 73.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important resistance is at 73.74/73.85 and important support is at 73.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 73.75, S1:73.68, S2:73.58, R1:73.85, R2:73.92
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 73.30/73.15. USD exports can be hedged at 73.70. If 73.85 is broken, hedging can be deferred.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.1910/1.20. Next major support is at 1.18/1.1665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1665. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages, but below 100 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.36 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3725 and later at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.39.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.46. Next important resistance is at 110.50/110.80. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.
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