USDINR opened at 73.60 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.57-73.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.68, gain of 18 ps USD as against prior close of 73.50. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.64 on 13/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.85, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.68. Sep Euro/INR closed at 87, GBP/INR at 102.05 and Yen/INR at 67.09. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.30% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (13/09) |
| USDINR | 73.64 |
| EURINR | 86.79 |
| GBPINR | 101.78 |
| JPYINR | 66.88 |
In Sept, FII’S have net bought Rs 236 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 1310 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 2139 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 9175 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat on Thursday. DOW climbed 267 points (0.76%). Nikkei was up 0.22% and Hang seng declined 1.51% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1815, Pound at 1.3845, Yen at 110.11.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1791 and WT1Crude at USD 70.85/Brent at USD 73.85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.333% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.19%.
Economic news: Indian CPI declined to 5.3% in Aug from 5.9% in July. Food inflation moderated to 3.11%. IIP climbed 11.5% in July. Manufacturing grew by 10.5% in July. The mining sector output rose 19.5 per cent in July while power generation increased 11.1 per cent.
Data highlights: – No major data release
Monday’s calendar: – US CPI
-UK unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 73.74 | 73.57 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1815 | 1.1818 | 1.1769 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3845 | 1.3852 | 1.3796 | |
| USD/JPY | 110.11 | 110.17 | 109.85 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1798 | 1.1827 | 1.1847 | 1.1875 | 1.1778 | 1.1749 | 1.1729 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3828 | 1.3860 | 1.3884 | 1.3915 | 1.3804 | 1.3772 | 1.3748 |
| USD/JPY | 110 | 110.15 | 110.32 | 110.47 | 109.83 | 109.68 | 109.51 |
| USD/INR | 73.66 | 73.75 | 73.83 | 73.58 | 73.49 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1800/1.1665 | 1.1910/1.20 | DN | UP>1.19 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3725/1.36 | 1.39 | SIDE | DN<1.3725 |
| USD/JPY | 109.10/108.75 | 110.80/111.60 | UP | DN<108.70 |
| USD/INR | 73.35 | 73.85 | DN | UP>73.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91/0.9010 | 0.9240 | UP | DN<0.91 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.74. 50 day moving average is at 74.17.200 day moving average is at 73.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important resistance is at 73.74/73.85 and important support is at 73.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 73.77, S1:73.66, S2:73.49, R1:73.95, R2:74.05
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done at around 73.30/73.15. USD exports can be hedged at 73.70. If 73.85 is broken, hedging can be deferred.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day moving averages, but above 50 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.1910/1.20. Next major support is at 1.18/1.1665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1665. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages, but below 100 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.36 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3725 and later at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.39.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.46. Next important resistance is at 110.50/110.80. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.
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