USDINR opened at 73.05 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.92-73.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.09, gain of 9 ps USD as against prior close of 73. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.95 on 01/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.28, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.20. Sep Euro/INR closed at 86.65, GBP/INR at 100.83 and Yen/INR at 66.48. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.28% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (01/09) |
| USDINR | 72.95 |
| EURINR | 86.06 |
| GBPINR | 100.31 |
| JPYINR | 66.19 |
In August, till date,, FII’S have net bought Rs 3543 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 11440 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 3472 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 7277 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.33% y’day. DOW declined 48 points (0.14%).Nikkei was up 1.29% and Hang seng climbed 0.58% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1839, Pound at 1.3777, Yen at 109.97.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1815 and WT1Crude at USD 68/Brent at USD 71.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.30% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.21%.
Economic news: USD weakened against Euro as US data was softer than expected. Focus is now on US payrolls data to be released on Friday.
Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that private sector added only 354k jobs in Aug vs 650k expectation and ISM(mfrg) climbed to 59.9, construction spending climbed 0.3% m/m.
-German retail sales declined -5.1% m/m, PMI(final) is at 61.4 and unemployment rate was reported at 7.6%.
-UK PMI(mfrg) dipped to 60.3.
Thursday’s calendar: -US weekly jobless claims, factory orders and trade balance
| USD/INR | 73.16 | 72.92 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1839 | 1.1848 | 1.1795 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3777 | 1.3807 | 1.3742 | |
| USD/JPY | 109.97 | 110.08 | 109.58 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1829 | 1.1865 | 1.1894 | 1.1930 | 1.1800 | 1.1764 | 1.1736 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3766 | 1.3802 | 1.3836 | 1.3871 | 1.3732 | 1.3696 | 1.3662 |
| USD/JPY | 110.10 | 110.32 | 110.65 | 110.88 | 109.77 | 109.55 | 109.22 |
| USD/INR | 73.05 | 73.19 | 73.29 | 72.94 | 72.81 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1665 | 1.1845/1.1910 | DN | UP>1.1910 |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | 1.3815/1.40 | SIDE | DN<1.3650 |
| USD/JPY | 109.10/108.75 | 110.80/111.60 | UP | DN<108.70 |
| USD/INR | 72.75 | 73.40/73.70 | DN | UP>74.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91/0.9010 | 0.9240 | UP | DN<0.91 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 20, 50 and 100 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.07. 50 day moving average is at 74.29.200 day moving average is at 73.65. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important resistance is at 73.35/73.55 and important support is at 72.75. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 73.25, S1:73.15, S2:73.01, R1:73.38, R2:73.49
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done . USD exports can be hedged on rally to 73.70/74.10.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.25.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.19. Next major support is at 1.1665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1665. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3985 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.36.Important resistance is at 1.40.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.10. Next important resistance is at 110.80/111.60. Important support is at 109.10/108.70.
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