FX MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 74.22 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.20-74.27 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.22, loss of 2 ps USD as against prior close of 74.24. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.25 on 26/08Aug USD/INR closed at 74.22, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.29. Aug Euro/INR closed at 87.42, GBP/INR at 102.05 and Yen/INR at 67.48. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.28% p.a.

PAIRS RBI REF RATE (26/08)
USDINR 74.26
EURINR 87.35
GBPINR 102.06
JPYINR 67.49

In August, till date,, FII’S have net bought Rs 7558 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 646 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 543 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 4163 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 192 points (0.54%).Nikkei was up 0.06% and Hang seng declined 1.08% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1745, Pound at 1.3683, Yen at 110.05.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1797 and WT1Crude at USD 67.50/Brent at USD 70.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.34% and 3 m libor closed at 0.12%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.25%.

Economic news: Market awaits Fed Chairman’s speech.

Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 353k.

Friday’s calendar: US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index.

USD/INR      74.27 74.20
EUR/USD     1.1745 1.1781 1.1746
GBP/USD     1.3683 1.3769 1.3690
USD/JPY     110.05 110.23 109.93

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1760 1.1774 1.1794 1.1808 1.1739 1.1726 1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3719 1.3748 1.3798 1.3827 1.3669 1.3640 1.3590
USD/JPY 110.07 110.21 110.38 110.52 109.91 109.76 109.60
USD/INR 74.23 74.265 74.30   74.19 74.16  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.16/1.1495 1.1770/1.1845 DN UP>1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3570 1.3750/1.40 UP DN<1.3790
USD/JPY 109.10/108.75 110.80/111.60 UP DN<108.70
USD/INR 74.08/73.90 74.50 UP SIDE<74.24
USD/CHF 0.91/0.9010 0.9240 UP DN<0.9010

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.32. 50 day moving average is at 74.30.200 day moving average is at 73.64. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important support is at 74.08 and important resistance is at 74.50. Spot closed at its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 74.24, S1:74.19, S2:74.15, R1:74.27, R2:74.33                

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Imports hedging can be done . USD exports can be hedged on rally to 74.60.

Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 87.50.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.19. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.19. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3985 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3570.Important resistance is at 1.40.

USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.80. Next important resistance is at 110.80/111.60. Important support is at 108.70.

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