USDINR opened at 74.25 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.24-74.33 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.25, loss of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.44. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.28 on 12/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 74.35, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.41. Aug Euro/INR closed at 87.38, GBP/INR at 103.02 and Yen/INR at 67.36. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.25% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (12/08)|
In August, till date,, FII’S have net bought Rs 4076 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 81 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 2939 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 4812 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.5% y’day. DOW climbed 15 points (0.04%).Nikkei was down 0.20% and Hang seng declined 0.53% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1738, Pound at 1.3868, Yen at 110.36.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1754 and WT1Crude at USD 68.70/Brent at USD 70.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.35% and 3 m libor closed at 0.13%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.23%.
Economic news: Indian July CPI climbed 5.59%. In June, CPI was at 6.26%. Food price inflation slipped month-on-month to 3.96 per cent in July, from 5.15 per cent in June. RBI, in its latest MPC meeting, raised the CPI inflation forecast at 5.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent estimated earlier during the ongoing financial year 2021-22. Industrial production climbed 13.6% y/y and manufacturing output climbed 13% y/y.
UK GDP climbed 4.8% q/q in Apr-June quarter.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 375k, PPI climbed 7.8% y/y and 1% m/m.
-EU Industrial production declined -0.3% m/m.
-UK Industrial production declined -0.7% m/m and manufacturing production climbed 0.2% m/m.
Friday’s calendar: No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.40. 50 day moving average is at 74.12.200 day moving average is at 73.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.08. Important support is at 74.08 and important resistance is at 74.55. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 74.38, S1:74.31, S2:74.27, R1:74.42, R2:74.49
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging can be done . USD exports can be hedged on rally to 74.60.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 88.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.19. Next major support is at 1.17. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.19. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3570 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3740/1.3570.Important resistance is at 1.4010.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.70. Next important resistance is at 110.60/111.60. Important support is at 108.70.
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