FX MORNING UPDATE

31/07/2018

                                                                                

USDINR opened at 68.69 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.62-68.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.68, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.65.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.75. Aug USD/INR closed at 68.89, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.91. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.67, GBP/INR at 90.51 and Yen/INR at 62.12.

FII’S have sold Rs 81 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1242 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 1457 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 42560 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.37% y’day. DOW declined 144 points (0.57%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.74% and Hang seng declined 0.25% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1707, Pound at 1.3068,Yen at 111.         

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1219 and WT1Crude at USD 69.97.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.96% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.78%.        

Economic news: Rupee shrugged off Yuan weakness and was steady. Indian Equities climbed rapidly, maintaining last week momentum. Focus is on Fed, BOE and RBI meetings. US Consumption and employment data will also be watched closely.                          

Data Highlights : – US pending home sales climbed 0.9% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar: US personal income, spending and Core PCE index, Chicago PMI

-US house price index          

                                                                                                                       

-EU unemployment rate and CPI (flash)

-German retail sales                         

USD/INR   68.78 68.62
EUR/USD 1.1707 1.1719 1.1648
GBP/USD 1.3068 1.3133 1.3081
USD/JPY 111 111.16 110.90

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1691 1.1734 1.1762 1.1805 1.1663 1.1620 1.1592
GBP/USD 1.3129 1.3160 1.3183 1.3214 1.3106 1.3075 1.3052
USD/JPY 111.02

 

111.14 111.28 111.40

 

110.88 110.76 110.62

 

USD/INR 68.69 68.76 68.85   68.60 68.53  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1508 1.1853/1.1960 DN SIDE>1.1853
GBP/USD 1.2957/1.2770 1.3365/1.3475/1.3650 DN SIDE>1.3365
USD/JPY 110.20/109.20 113.10 UP DN<109
USD/INR 68.30 69.70 UP SIDE<68.30
USD/CHF 0.9785/0.9650 1.0060 UP  DN <0.9785

       

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 68.75. 50 day moving average is at 68.19. 200 day moving average is at 65.72. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.10 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 68.92,S1:68.77, S2:68.67, R1:69.03, R2:69.17.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2957 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.2957 and later at 1.2770.  

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 113. Next important support is at 110.20 and later at 109.20. Important resistance is  113.       

 

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