• By Goodwill
  • 72 Comments
  • December 29, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.27 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.17-83.32 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.17, loss of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.33.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.22 on 28/12Jan USD/INR closed at 83.26 y’day, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.41. Jan Euro/INR closed at 92.45, GBP/INR at 106.60 and Yen/INR at 58.94. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.77% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 615.97 bn as on Dec 15 th.  FX reserves climbed USD 9 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (28/12)

USDINR

83.22

EURINR

92.45

GBPINR

106.60

JPYINR

58.94

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 47659 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15636 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 123 points (0.57%) y’day. US S&P closed flat y’day (0.%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.42% and Hang Seng climbed 2.61% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1067, Pound at 1.2734, Yen at 141.45.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2068 and WT1Crude at USD 72/Brent at USD 77.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.84% and 3 m libor closed at 5.62%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic news: Indian Equities continued to surge as domestic and overseas inflows remained robust.

ECB Governing Council member emphasized there should be no presumption of rate reductions in the coming year. He stated, “Even if the ECB is past an unprecedented series of ten consecutive rate increases, there is also for the year 2024 no guarantee of rate reductions.”

Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims was reported at 218 k and pending home sales was flat m/m.

Friday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR

 

 

 83.32

83.17

EUR/USD

1.1067

 

1.1141

1.1055

GBP/USD

1.2734

 

1.2829

1.2711

USD/JPY

141.45

 

141.84

140.25

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1085

1.1115

1.1171

1.1201

1.1029

1.0999

1.0943

GBP/USD

1.2757

1.2803

1.2875

1.2921

1.2685

1.2639

1.2567

USD/JPY

141.16

142.07

142.75

143.66

140.48

139.57

138.90

USD/INR

83.22

83.27

83.37

 

83.12

83.07

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.1015

1.1275

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2845/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

83.10

83.40

SIDE

SIDE<83.10

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.28. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.30, S1:83.205, S2:83.145, R1:83.36, R2:83.415.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2845/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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