USDINR opened at 74.39 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.32-74.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.34, loss of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.41. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.40 on 02/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 74.56, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.58. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.32, GBP/INR at 103.45 and Yen/INR at 67.85. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.38% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (02/08)|
In July, FII’S have net sold Rs 10188 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 758 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 1137 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 4893 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.77% y’day. DOW declined 97 points (0.28%).Nikkei was up 1.82% and Hang seng climbed 0.93% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1871, Pound at 1.3893, Yen at 109.30.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1813 and WT1Crude at USD 71.58/Brent at USD 73.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.19% and 3 m libor closed at 0.13%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.20%.
Economic news: Indian PMI(mfrg) climbed to 3 months high reading of 55.3 in July. GST collections rose to 116393 Cr in July. RBI is meeting on 6 th Aug and is expected to maintain status quo.
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 59.5 and construction spending climbed 0.1% m/m.
-German retail sales climbed 4.2% m/m, PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 62.8.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 60.4.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US factory orders
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.51. 50 day moving average is at 73.88.200 day moving average is at 73.58. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important support is at 74.24/73.90 and important resistance is at 74.57/74.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 74.56, S1:74.49, S2:74.44, R1:74.62, R2:74.68
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging should be done on dips to 73.90 . USD exports can be hedged.
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 88.30.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1975. Next major support is at 1.1815/1.1755. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1755. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3570 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3740/1.3570.Important resistance is at 1.4010.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.60. Next important resistance is at 110.60/111.60. Important support is at 109.
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