USDINR opened at 74.54 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.51-74.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.56, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.54. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.62 on 16/07. July USD/INR closed at 74.71, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.65. July Euro/INR closed at 88.23, GBP/INR at 103.15 and Yen/INR at 67.80. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.45% p.a.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (16/07)|
In July, FII’S have net sold Rs 3394 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 605 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 5657 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 3530 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat on Friday. DOW declined 299 points (0.86%).Nikkei declined 0.98% and Hang seng climbed 0.39%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1806, Pound at 1.3772, Yen at 110.05.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1812 and WT1Crude at USD 71.50/Brent at USD 73.15.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.30% and 3 m libor closed at 0.13%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.13%.
Economic news: US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 621.3B in June, much better than expectation of -0.6% mom decline. Ex-auto sales rose 1.3% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Focus is on ECB meet in the coming week.
BOJ maintained status quo on monetary policy.
Data highlights: – US retail sales climbed 0.6% m/m.
-EU CPI(final) climbed 1.9% y/y.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.45. 50 day moving average is at 73.65.200 day moving average is at 73.54. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.95. Important support is at 74.40/74.24 and important resistance is at 74.67/74.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 74.69, S1:74.62, S2:74.53, R1:74.78, R2:74.85
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging should be done on dips to 73.90 .
Exporters can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 89/89.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1880/1.1975. Next major support is at 1.1780/1.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1780. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major 50 and 100 day moving averages, but above 200 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3730 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3730.Important resistances is at 1.39/1.4010.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.65. Next important resistance is at 110.50/111.50. Important support is at 109.50/108.50.
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