USDINR opened at 74.14 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.13-74.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.19, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.16. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.19 on 25/06. June USD/INR closed at 74.23, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.20. June Euro/INR closed at 88.67, GBP/INR at 103.22 and Yen/INR at 67.06. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.42% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (25/06) |
| USDINR | 74.19 |
| EURINR | 88.61 |
| GBPINR | 103.34 |
| JPYINR | 66.92 |
In June till date, FII’S have net bought Rs 3162 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 2962 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 3611 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 2962 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.44% on Friday. DOW climbed 237 points (0.69%).Nikkei climbed 0.66% and Hang seng climbed 1.40%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1935, Pound at 1.3886, Yen at 110.79.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1781 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 76.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.524% and 3 m libor closed at 0.135%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.03%.
Economic news: US inflation climbed higher, but was below expectation. German and UK consumer data showed that consumer confidence is climbing back. US nonfarm payrolls and ISM(mfrg) are key data events for the coming week.
Data highlights: – US Personal income declined -2% m/m, spending was flat m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.5% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 74.25 | 74.13 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1935 | 1.1976 | 1.1925 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3886 | 1.3937 | 1.3871 | |
| USD/JPY | 110.79 | 110.99 | 110.48 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1945 | 1.1965 | 1.1996 | 1.1914 | 1.1894 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3898 | 1.3925 | 1.3964 | 1.3859 | 1.3832 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.75 | 111.02 | 111.26 | 110.51 | 110.24 | ||
| USD/INR | 74.19 | 74.25 | 74.31 | 74.13 | 74.07 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1845 | 1.1990/1.2050 | DN | UP>1.2090 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3670 | 1.40/1.4090 | DN | UP>1.4070 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70/109.20/108.35 | 111.70/112.25 | UP | DN<108.35 |
| USD/INR | 73.80/73.55 | 74.60 | UP | DN<73.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9050 | 0.9250/0.9475 | UP | DN<0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.41. 50 day moving average is at 73.65.200 day moving average is at 73.46. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.35. Important support is at 73.80/73.55 and important resistance is at 74.60. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 74.21, S1:74.15, S2:74.09, R1:74.28, R2:74.33
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be deferred tii 74.70.
Importers can hedge EURINR receivables exposure at 89/89.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990/1.2050. Next major support is at 1.1845/1.17. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2270. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2270.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240. Important support is at 1.3670.Important resistances is at 1.40/1.4090.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important resistance is at 111.70/112.25. Important support is at 109.35/109.10/108.35.
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