USDINR opened at 73.21 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.10-73.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.27, gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.07. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.19 on 14/06. June USD/INR closed at 73.35, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.21. June Euro/INR closed at 88.91, GBP/INR at 103.42 and Yen/INR at 66.91. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.50% p.a. Indian FX reserves touched US 605 bn.

In June till date, FII’S have net bought Rs 4788 cr in Equity segment and have net sold Rs 1793 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 5237 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1089 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.08% y’day. DOW declined 85 points (0.25%).Nikkei climbed 0.74% and Hang seng climbed 0.36%.

Euro is now at 1.2119, Pound at 1.4108, Yen at 110.06  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1863 and WT1Crude at USD 71.45/Brent at USD 73.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.46% and 3 m libor closed at 0.135%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.00%.

Economic news: Indian May CPI surged to 6.3%, above RBI target band. April CPI was revised lower to 4.23%. Food inflation in May surged to 5.01%. May WPI climbed even more steeply to 12.94% due to Crude prices.

 ECB Chief reiterated that ECB has indicated the PEPP program will continue “until at least March 2022 and, in any case, until the Governing Council judges that the pandemic crisis phase is over.” Eurozone seems to be “heading in the right decision”. But it’s “far too early to debate” ending the PEPP program.

Data highlights: – Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% mom in April, above expectation of 0.4% mom.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US retail sales, industrial production and NY mfrg index

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.93. 50 day moving average is at 73.58.200 day moving average is at 73.50. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.35. Important support is at 72.35 and important resistance is at 73.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 73.31, S1:73.17, S2:73.01, R1:73.48, R2:73.61                      

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

If 73.35 is broken on the upside, suggest wait for receivables hedging.

Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done .

Importers can hedge EURINR exposure at 88.25. Receivables can be hedged at 89+

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.2050/1.1990. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2250. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3665. Important support is at 1.40/1.38.Important resistances is at 1.4240.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.35. Next important resistance is at 110.35. Important support is at 108.35.

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