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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 99 Comments
  • December 21, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.17 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.12-83.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.20, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.18.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.15 on 20/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.20 y’day, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.08. Dec Euro/INR closed at 91.03, GBP/INR at 105.28 and Yen/INR at 58.10. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 606.85 bn as on Dec 1 st.  FX reserves climbed USD 2.81 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (20/12)

USDINR

83.15

EURINR

91.14

GBPINR

105.75

JPYINR

57.86

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 32989 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 9027 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 302 points (1.41%) y’day. US S&P declined 70 points (1.47%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.47% and Hang Seng climbed 0.58% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.0947, Pound at 1.2631, Yen at 142.95.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2036 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 79.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.86% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.17%.

Economic news: UK inflation slowed more than expected, triggering slump in Pound. Markets are now fully pricing the first 25bps reduction as early as May, with projections suggesting interest rates could drop to 4% or lower by the end of 2024. German Central bank Chief emphasized the importance of maintaining the current interest rate levels to ensure the effective management of inflation.  However, he did acknowledge that interest rates have likely reached their peak, suggesting that while an immediate rate reduction may not be on the horizon, the period of aggressive rate hikes should have come to an end.

Focus will be on US Core PCE index to be released on Friday.

Data highlights: – US existing home sales climbed to 3.82 mn and Consumer confidence climbed to 110.7.

-EU Consumer confidence was reported at -15.

-UK CPI climbed 3.9% y/y, RPI climbed 5.3% y/y and PPI(output) declined -0.1% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims

USD/INR

 

  

 83.20

83.12

EUR/USD

1.0947

  

1.0985

1.0929

GBP/USD

1.2631

  

1.2737

1.2624

USD/JPY

142.95

  

143.57

142.81

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0951

1.0973

1.1007

1.1028

1.0917

1.0895

1.0861

GBP/USD

1.2666

1.2708

1.2779

1.2821

1.2595

1.2553

1.2482

USD/JPY

143.64

144.02

144.48

144.86

143.18

142.80

142.34

USD/INR

83.17

83.23

83.25

 

83.14

83.09

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735/1.0665

1.1018

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.25/1.2325

1.2795

SIDE

DN<1.25

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

82.80

83.25

SIDE

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.30. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.64. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.24/83.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 83.19, S1:83.16, S2:83.12, R1:83.23, R2:83.26.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.24/83.30. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2795 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.25/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2795.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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