25/07/2018
USDINR opened at 68.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.84-69.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.94, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.85.RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.05. July USD/INR closed at 68.96, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.91. July Euro/INR closed at 80.75, GBP/INR at 90.55 and Yen/INR at 62.075.
FII’S have sold Rs 2788 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1934 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1249 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 43252 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.45% Y’day. DOW climbed 197 points (0.79%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.51% and Hang seng climbed 1.44% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1679, Pound at 1.3141,Yen at 111.29.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1223 and WT1Crude at USD 68.77.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.95% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.78%.
Economic news: Risk appetite returned as Global markets climbed higher despite weak PMI data from EU. The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that the U.S. dollar is over-valued, China’s yuan is in line with fundamentals and nearly half of global current account balances are now excessive, adding to growth risks and trade tensions.
Data Highlights : – US house price index climbed 0.2% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg) climbed to 55.1 and PMI(services) dipped to 54.4.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US new home sales
-German Ifo
| USD/INR | 69.08 | 68.84 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1679 | 1.1716 | 1.1656 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3141 | 1.3159 | 1.3072 |
| USD/JPY | 111.29 | 111.46 | 110.97 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1686 | 1.1716 | 1.1746 | 1.1776 | 1.1656 | 1.1626 | 1.1596 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3127 | 1.3182 | 1.3214 | 1.3269 | 1.3095 | 1.3040 | 1.3008 |
| USD/JPY | 111.24
|
111.51 | 111.73 | 112
|
111.02 | 110.75 | 110.53
|
| USD/INR | 68.95 | 69.06 | 69.19 | 68.82 | 68.71 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2770 | 1.3365/1.3475/1.3650 | DN | SIDE>1.3365 |
| USD/JPY | 110.86 | 113.20 | UP | DN<110.85 |
| USD/INR | 68.65/68.30 | 69.70 | UP | SIDE<68.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9785/0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.72. 50 day moving average is at 68.12. 200 day moving average is at 65.65. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.98,S1:68.84, S2:68.72, R1:69.10, R2:69.24.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3365 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 110.85. Important resistance is 113.20.
