USDINR opened at 73.08 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.04-73.31 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.09, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.90. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.20 on 02/06. June USD/INR closed at 73.40, gain of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.16. June Euro/INR closed at 89.32, GBP/INR at 103.61 and Yen/INR at 66.83. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 4.85% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (02/06) |
| USDINR | 73.20 |
| EURINR | 89.43 |
| GBPINR | 103.63 |
| JPYINR | 66.72 |
In May till date, FII’S have net sold Rs 9341 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 1805 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 449 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 704 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW climbed 25 points (0.07%).Nikkei declined 0.16% and Hang seng climbed 1.20%.
Euro is now at 1.2209, Pound at 1.4170, Yen at 109.68.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1908 and WT1Crude at USD 69/Brent at USD 71.55.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.59% and 3 m libor closed at 0.155%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.01%.
Economic news: Eurozone PPI came in at 1.0% mom, 7.6% yoy in April, above expectation of 0.9%. Markets await US NFP and RBI Credit policy.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Thursday’s calendar: – US ISM(non mfrg), weekly jobless claims, ADP employment report
-EU PMI(services-final)
-UK PMI(services-final)
| USD/INR | 73.31 | 73.04 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.2209 | 1.2227 | 1.2164 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.4170 | 1.4183 | 1.4112 | |
| USD/JPY | 109.68 | 109.89 | 109.48 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2200 | 1.2236 | 1.2263 | 1.2298 | 1.2173 | 1.2137 | 1.2110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4156 | 1.4200 | 1.4227 | 1.4271 | 1.4129 | 1.4085 | 1.4057 |
| USD/JPY | 109.66 | 109.84 | 110.07 | 110.25 | 109.43 | 109.25 | 109.02 |
| USD/INR | 73.14 | 73.25 | 73.42 | 72.97 | 72.86 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2130/1.2050/1.1990 | 1.2240/1.2350 | UP | DN<1.1990 |
| GBP/USD | 1.40/1.38 | 1.4240 | UP | SIDE<1.40 |
| USD/JPY | 108.35/107.47 | 111 | UP | DN<107.47 |
| USD/INR | 72.25 | 73.50 | SIDE | DN<72.75 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8870 | 0.9050/0.9130 | DN | UP>0.9130 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.20. 50 day moving average is at 73.50.200 day moving average is at 73.59. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.35. Important support is at 72.35 and important resistance is at 73.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 73.36, S1:73.16, S2:72.93, R1:73.59, R2: 73.79
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Expect 73.10/73.55 on upward correction.
Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done later on rally.
Importers can hedge EURINR exposure at 88.50. Receivables can be hedged later.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.2050/1.1990. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2250. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3665. Important support is at 1.40/1.38.Important resistances is at 1.4240.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.35. Next important resistance is at 111. Important support is at 108.35.
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