USDINR opened at 72.97 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.83-73.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.83, loss of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.10. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.97 on 21/05. May USD/INR closed at 72.86, loss of 31 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.17. May Euro/INR closed at 89.07, GBP/INR at 103.53 and Yen/INR at 67.07. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 5.25% p.a.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (21/05) |
| USDINR | 72.97 |
| EURINR | 89.26 |
| GBPINR | 103.54 |
| JPYINR | 67.12 |
In May till date, FII’S have net sold Rs 10742 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 2218 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 952 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 1117 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.81%. DOW climbed 123 points (0.36%).Nikkei climbed 0.19% and Hang seng declined 0.69%.
Euro closed the week at 1.2181, Pound at 1.4152, Yen at 108.96.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1881 and WT1Crude at USD 63.87/Brent at USD 66.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.62% and 3 m libor closed at 0.155%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.97%.
Economic news: Rupee gained further on inflows and broad USD strength. Euro zone PMI rose to 39 month highs. Asian economies data showed slowdown in GDP and other macroeconomic indicators. UK data is robust on economy reopening. Factory orders are surging and inflation is on the uptrend.
Data highlights: – US existing home sales dipped to 5.85 mn.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) improved to 62.8 and PMI(services-flash) climbed to 55.1 and consumer confidence improved to -5.
-UK retail sales climbed 9.2% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 73.09 | 72.83 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.2181 | 1.2240 | 1.2161 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.4152 | 1.4234 | 1.4141 | |
| USD/JPY | 108.96 | 109.01 | 108.61 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2194 | 1.2227 | 1.2273 | 1.2148 | 1.2115 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.4175 | 1.4210 | 1.4268 | 1.4116 | 1.4082 | ||
| USD/JPY | 108.86 | 109.11 | 109.26 | 108.71 | 108.46 | ||
| USD/INR | 72.91 | 73 | 73.17 | 72.73 | 72.65 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2050/1.1990 | 1.2240/1.2350 | UP | DN<1.1990 |
| GBP/USD | 1.40/1.38 | 1.4240 | UP | SIDE<1.40 |
| USD/JPY | 108.35/107.47 | 109.70/111 | SIDE | DN<107.47 |
| USD/INR | 72.75 | 73.20/73.55/73.80 | DN | SIDE>73.55 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8870 | 0.9160 | DN | UP>0.9220 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.73. 50 day moving average is at 73.52.200 day moving average is at 73.63. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 72.75 and important resistance is at 73.55/73.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 72.95, S1:72.74, S2:72.63, R1:73.06, R2: 73.27
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Expect 72.75-73.55 trading range till either side is broken.
Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done later on rally.
Importers can hedge EURINR exposure now at around 88.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.1990. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.38 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3665. Important support is at 1.40/1.38.Important resistances is at 1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.80. Next important resistance is at 109.80/111. Important support is at 107.47.
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