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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 460 Comments
  • December 20, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.12 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.11-83.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.18, gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.06.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.18 on 19/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.20 y’day, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.08. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.99, GBP/INR at 105.61 and Yen/INR at 57.55. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.68% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 606.85 bn as on Dec 1 st.  FX reserves climbed USD 2.81 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (19/12)

USDINR

83.18

EURINR

90.86

GBPINR

105.26

JPYINR

57.95

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 32989 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 9027 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 34 points (0.16%) y’day. US S&P climbed 27 points (0.59%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.32% and Hang Seng declined 0.68% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.0973, Pound at 1.2722, Yen at 143.64.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2050 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 79.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.91% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.14%.

Economic news: BoJ decided to maintain its monetary policy unchanged. BOJ Governor reaffirmed the central bank’s readiness to take “additional easing steps if necessary,” highlighting the “extremely high” level of uncertainty surrounding the economy.

Focus will be on US Core PCE index to be released on Friday.

Data highlights: – US Housing starts climbed to 1.56 mn and building permits dipped to 1.46 mn.

-EU CPI climbed 2.4% y/y.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US existing home sales

-EU Consumer confidence

-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.22

83.11

EUR/USD

1.0973

  

1.0988

1.0914

GBP/USD

1.2722

  

1.2763

1.2639

USD/JPY

143.64

  

144.97

142.24

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0961

1.1008

1.1034

1.1081

1.0934

1.0888

1.0861

GBP/USD

1.2711

1.2783

1.2835

1.2907

1.2659

1.2587

1.2535

USD/JPY

143.68

145.12

146.41

147.84

142.39

140.95

139.66

USD/INR

83.17

83.23

83.28

 

83.12

83.06

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735/1.0665

1.1018

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.25/1.2325

1.2795

SIDE

DN<1.25

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

82.80

83.25

SIDE

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.31. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.64. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.24/83.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 83.10, S1:82.85, S2:82.71, R1:83.24, R2:83.49.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.24/83.30. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2795 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.25/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2795.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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