USDINR opened at 73.42 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.22-73.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.29, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.42. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.35 on 14/05May USD/INR closed at 73.45, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.60. May Euro/INR closed at 89, GBP/INR at 103.42 and Yen/INR at 67.20. USDINR fwd premia climbed with 1 year inching higher to 5.15% p.a.

USDINR 73.35
EURINR 88.80
GBPINR 103.12
JPYINR 67.03

In May till date, FII’S have net sold Rs 8713 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 1756 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 802 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 655 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.18%. DOW climbed 360 points (1.06%).Nikkei climbed 2.32% and Hang seng climbed 1.11%.

Euro closed the week at 1.2141, Pound at 1.4098, Yen at 109.35.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1843 and WT1Crude at USD 65.50/Brent at USD 68.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.635% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.02%.

Economic news: US retail sales was flat and Crosses bounced back. ECB said that future pace of asset purchase will be data dependent, financing conditions and inflation outlook.

Data highlights: US retail sales closed flat and industrial production climbed 0.7% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: US NY mfrg index

USD/INR     73.43 73.22
EUR/USD     1.2141 1.2150 1.2070
GBP/USD     1.4098 1.4112 1.4036
USD/JPY     109.35 109.66 109.19

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2120 1.2170  1.22    1.2090 1.2040  
GBP/USD 1.4082 1.4128  1.4158    1.4052 1.4006  
USD/JPY 109.40 109.61  109.87    109.14 108.93
USD/INR 73.31 73.40 73.52   73.19 73.10  


Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.2050/1.1990 1.2240/1.2350 UP DN<1.1990
GBP/USD 1.38/1.3670 1.4240 UP DN<1.38
USD/JPY 108.35/107.47 109.70/111 SIDE DN<107.47
USD/INR 73.10 73.55/73.80 DN SIDE>73.55
USD/CHF 0.8970 0.9160 DN UP>0.9220

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.16. 50 day moving average is at 73.51.200 day moving average is at 73.68. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 73.10 and important resistance is at 73.55/73.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 73.47, S1:73.33, S2:73.22, R1:73.58, R2: 73.72                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Expect 73.05-74.25 trading range till either side is broken.

Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done later on rally.

Importers can hedge EURINR exposure now at around 88.80.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.1990. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.38 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.38/1.3670.Important resistances is at 1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.47. Next important resistance is at 109.70/111. Important support is at 107.47.

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