USDINR opened at 73.49 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 73.39-73.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.42, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.34. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.42 on 12/05May USD/INR closed at 73.60, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.54. May Euro/INR closed at 89.27, GBP/INR at 104.01 and Yen/INR at 67.73.

USDINR 73.42
EURINR 89.06
GBPINR 103.75
JPYINR 67.49

In May till date, FII’S have net sold Rs 5935 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 67 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 3580 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1034 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.04%. DOW climbed 433 points (1.29%).Nikkei declined 2.49% and Hang seng declined 1.81%.

Euro is now at 1.2075, Pound at 1.4042, Yen at 109.63.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1832 and WT1Crude at USD 63.75/Brent at USD 66.90.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.66% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6%.

Economic news: Indian April CPI inflation eased to 4.29%. March inflation was at 5.52%. Inflation in the food basket was 2.02 per cent in April, down from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month. March IIP climbed to 22.4% due to low base effect. Manufacturing output climbed 25.8%. Mining output climbed 6.1 per cent and power generation increased by 22.5 per cent in March. IIP contracted 3.6% in Feb 2021. IIP declined 8.6% in FY21.

US inflation surged, unemployment declined to pre pandemic levels and Global yields hardened.

Data highlights: US CPI climbed 0.8% m/m.

-US Weekly jobless claims declined to 473k, PPI climbed 0.6% m/m.

-UK industrial and manufacturing production climbed 1.8% m/m and 2.1% m/m respectively.

Friday’s calendar: US retail sales and industrial production.

USD/INR     73.51 73.39
EUR/USD     1.2075 1.2107 1.2051
GBP/USD     1.4042 1.4079 1.4006
USD/JPY     109.63 109.79 109.40

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2079 1.2107 1.2135 1.2163 1.2051 1.2023 1.1994
GBP/USD 1.4044 1.4082 1.4117 1.4155 1.4009 1.3971 1.3937
USD/JPY 109.57 109.74 109.95 110.12 109.35 109.19 108.97
USD/INR 73.44 73.49 73.56   73.37 73.32  


Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1990 1.2240/1.2350 UP DN<1.1990
GBP/USD 1.38/1.3670 1.4010/1.4240 UP DN<1.38
USD/JPY 107.47 109.70 SIDE DN<107.47
USD/INR 73.30 73.80/74.25 SIDE UP>74.25
USD/CHF 0.8970 0.9160 DN UP>0.9220

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.25. 50 day moving average is at 73.51.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 73.10 and important resistance is at 73.80/74.25. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 73.60, S1:73.52, S2:73.44, R1:73.68, R2: 73.76                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Expect 73.05-74.25 trading range till either side is broken.

Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done later on rally.

Importers can hedge EURINR exposure now at around 88.80.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.1990. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.38 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.38/1.3670.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.47. Next important resistance is at 109.70. Important support is at 107.47.

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