USDINR opened at 73.63 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.50-73.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.51, loss of 25 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.76. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.74 on 07/05. May USD/INR closed at 73.96, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.18. May Euro/INR closed at 89, GBP/INR at 102.48 and Yen/INR at 67.55. Rupee gained due to IPO related inflows. Fwd premia softened with 1 year edging lower to 4.83%.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (07/05)|
In May till date, FII’S have net sold Rs 5935 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 67 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net bought Rs 3580 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1034 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.73%. DOW climbed 229 points (0.66%).Nikkei climbed 0.09% and Hang seng declined 0.09%.
Euro closed the week at 1.2163, Pound at 1.3972, Yen at 108.60.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1832 and WT1Crude at USD 64.85/Brent at USD 68.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.58% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.98%.
Economic news: US employment data disappointed expectations. US added only 266k as against consensus of 1 mn jobs. Unemployment rate climbed to 6.1%. Total non-farm employment was still down -8.2m, or -5.4%, compared to pre-pandemic level in February 2020. This data may strengthen accommodative monetary view till end 2022.
Data highlights: -German industrial production climbed 2.5% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) dipped to 61.6.
Monday’s calendar: EU sentix investor confidence.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.43. 50 day moving average is at 73.34.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 73.45 and important resistance is at 74.28/74.62/74.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 73.76, S1:73.56, S2:73.45, R1:73.87, R2: 74.07
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Expect 73.05-74.25 trading range till either side is broken.
Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done later on rally.
Importers can hedge EURINR exposure now at around 88.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2250/1.2330. Next major support is at 1.1990. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.17.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.38 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.38/1.3670.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.47. Next important resistance is at 109.70. Important support is at 107.47.
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