USDINR opened at 73.86 Y’day and the pair traded in the 73.76-74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.76, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.93 on 06/05. May USD/INR closed at 73.96, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.18. May Euro/INR closed at 89.15, GBP/INR at 102.96 and Yen/INR at 67.81. Rupee gained due to IPO related inflows. Fwd premia softened with 1 year edging lower to 4.85%.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (06/05)|
In April till date, FII’S have net bought Rs 2355 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1101 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.73%. DOW climbed 318 points (0.93%).Nikkei climbed 1.80% and Hang seng climbed 0.77%.
Euro is now at 1.2062, Pound at 1.3895, Yen at 109.14.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1814 and WT1Crude at USD 67.52/Brent at USD 68.10.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.575% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.98%.
Economic news: BoE kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank rate is held at 0.10% on unanimous vote. Asset purchase target was kept at GBP 895B in total. The central bank said economic activity is expected to “rise sharply” in Q2 and GDP would recovery to pre-Covid level “over the remainder of this year”, in absence of most restrictions.
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 498k.
-German factory orders climbed 3% m/m, retail sales climbed 2.7% m/m.
-UK PMI(services) was finalized at 61.
Friday’s calendar: – US Nonfarm payrolls
-German industrial production
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.43. 50 day moving average is at 73.34.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 73.65 and important resistance is at 74.28/74.62/74.90. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 74.04, S1:73.86, S2:73.76, R1:74.14, R2: 74.32
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Expect 73.65-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.
Imports hedging should be done on dips and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.30.
Importers can hedge EURINR exposure now at around 88.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2150/1.2250. Next major support is at 1.1990 and later at 1.1935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4010 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3670/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.47. Next important resistance is at 110/111. Important support is at 107.47
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