23/07/2018
USDINR opened at 69.01 on Friday and the pair traded in the 68.82-69.12 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.84, loss of 21 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.05.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.85. Rupee recovered on RBI intervention. July USD/INR closed at 68.89, loss of 20 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.09. July Euro/INR closed at 80.34, GBP/INR at 89.90 and Yen/INR at 61.32.
FII’S have sold Rs 2788 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1934 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1249 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 43252 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.48% on Friday. DOW closed flat on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.29% and Hang seng climbed 0.76% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1721, Pound at 1.3130,Yen at 111.47.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1231 and WT1Crude at USD 68.13.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.89% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.79%.
Economic news: US Treasury secy said that US is monitoring recent weakness in Yuan and will review whether Yuan has been deliberately manipulated. US President continued to launch criticism of China and EU over currency weakness to create unfair advantage. He was also critical of Fed’s rate hike decisions. US President said that he may even consider levying additional tariff on entire Chinese imports, totalling USD 500 bn annually.
Data Highlights : – No major data.
Monday’s calendar: – US existing home sales and EU consumer confidence
| USD/INR | 69.12 | 68.82 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1721 | 1.1739 | 1.1626 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3130 | 1.3140 | 1.2995 |
| USD/JPY | 111.47 | 112.62 | 111.39 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1695 | 1.1764 | 1.1808 | 1.1651 | 1.1582 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3088 | 1.3181 | 1.3233 | 1.3036 | 1.2943 | ||
| USD/JPY | 111.82
|
112.26 | 113.05 |
|
111.02 | 110.59 |
|
| USD/INR | 68.92 | 69.03 | 69.22 | 68.72 | 68.62 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2770 | 1.3365/1.3475/1.3650 | DN | SIDE>1.3365 |
| USD/JPY | 110.86 | 113.20 | UP | DN<110.85 |
| USD/INR | 68.71/68.30 | 69.70 | UP | SIDE<68.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9785/0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.65. 50 day moving average is at 68.08. 200 day moving average is at 65.63. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.98,S1:68.78, S2:68.65, R1:69.10, R2:69.31.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3365 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 110.85. Important resistance is 113.20.
