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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 129 Comments
  • December 18, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.31 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.94-83.33 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.02, loss of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.31. After many months, RBI allowed volatility in favor of Rupee. Broad based USD gain against majors triggered withdrawal of import bids. RBI did not step in to buy USD. FPI’S investment in Equity markets and inflows brought in by an Indian Corporate also contributed to Rupee gains.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.18 on 15/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83 on Friday, loss of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.33. Dec Euro/INR closed at 91, GBP/INR at 105.97 and Yen/INR at 58.67. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.68% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 606.85 bn as on Dec 1 st.  FX reserves climbed USD 2.81 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (15/12)

USDINR

83.18

EURINR

91.36

GBPINR

106.12

JPYINR

58.60

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 32989 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 9027 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 274 points (1.29%) on Friday. US S&P closed flat (0.00%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.93% and Hang Seng climbed 2.58% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0894, Pound at 1.2681, Yen at 142.16.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2019 and WT1Crude at USD 72/Brent at USD 77.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.91% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.

Economic news: Indian Trade deficit fell sharply to USD 20.58 bn in Nov as against USD 31.46 bn in Oct. Imports declined to USD 54.48 bn from USD 65.03 bn in Oct. Exports rose marginally to USD 33.90 bn from USD 33.57 bn in Oct. in this fiscal, Indian exports is at USD 278.80 bn, down 6.5% y/y , while imports is at USD 445.15 bn, down 8.67% y/y. Meanwhile, services exports, too, has stood still in November at $28.69 billion compared to $28.70 billion in October, and imports fell to $13.40 billion from $14.32 billion in the previous month.

Indian PMI(services) declined to 56.9 in Nov from 58.4 in Oct. PMI(mfrg) rose to 56 in Nov from 55.5 in Oct.

USD rebounded as NY Fed President quashed hopes of March 2024 rate cut. He emphasized Fed’s focus on determining if the current monetary policy is “sufficiently restrictive” to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. He also highlighted the unpredictable nature of economic data, suggesting Fed must be prepared to “tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse.”

Euro also traded lower on weaker than expected PMI data. PMI Composite index decreased from 47.6 to 47.0. This ongoing contraction underscores the challenges facing the Eurozone economy, with a high likelihood that it has been in a recession since the third quarter.

ECB member said that rate hikes are over, but it is too premature to talk about rate cuts.

UK PMI(composite) rose to 51.7 from 50.7, 6 months high. Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented, “The UK economy continues to dodge recession, with growth picking up some momentum at the end of the year to suggest that GDP stagnated over the fourth quarter as a whole.” He also highlighted the dual-speed nature of the UK economy, with manufacturing contracting sharply while services, particularly financial services, showed signs of growth.

Data highlights: – US industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 44.2 and PMI(services-flash) declined to 48.1.

-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) dipped to 46.4 and PMI(services-flash) climbed to 52.7.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.33

82.94

EUR/USD

1.0894

  

1.1004

1.0889

GBP/USD

1.2681

  

1.2790

1.2668

USD/JPY

142.16

  

142.47

141.44

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0929

1.0969

1.1044

 

1.0854

1.0814

 

GBP/USD

1.2713

1.2758

1.2835

 

1.2636

1.2591

 

USD/JPY

142.02

142.60

143.05

 

141.57

140.99

 

USD/INR

83.09

83.25

83.49

 

82.85

82.69

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735/1.0665

1.1018

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.25/1.2325

1.2795

SIDE

DN<1.25

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

82.80

83.25

SIDE

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.33. 50 day moving average is at 83.24.200 day moving average is at 82.64. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.24. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 83.10, S1:82.85, S2:82.71, R1:83.24, R2:83.49.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.24/83.30. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2795 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.25/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2795.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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