USDINR opened at 73.86 Y’day and the pair traded in the 73.78-74.04 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.91, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.86. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.98 on 05/05. May USD/INR closed at 74.18, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.25. May Euro/INR closed at 89.18, GBP/INR at 103.23 and Yen/INR at 67.89. Rupee gained due to IPO related inflows. Fwd premia softened with 1 year edging lower to 5%.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (05/05) |
| USDINR | 73.98 |
| EURINR | 88.82 |
| GBPINR | 102.78 |
| JPYINR | 67.61 |
In April till date, FII’S have net bought Rs 2355 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 1101 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.84%. DOW climbed 97 points (0.29%).Nikkei declined 0.83% and Hang seng declined 0.38%.
Euro is now at 1.2006, Pound at 1.3907, Yen at 109.35.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1785 and WT1Crude at USD 65.47/Brent at USD 68.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.58% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.98%.
Economic news: RBI announced liquidity boosting steps and lending to healthcare and SME’S. Individuals and SME borrowers up to Rs 25 Cr can avail restructuring of loans, if not availed earlier. This will be in effect till Sept 21. RBI also announced Rs 35000 Cr additional G-SEC buying. A new 3 year term loan financing facility of Rs 50000 Cr will be available for healthcare sector. Small financing banks lending to micro finance institutions will be considered as priority sector lending. A special three-year long-term repo operations (SLTRO) of Rs 10,000 crore at repo rate for the SFBs, to be deployed for fresh lending of up to Rs 10 lakh per borrower.
RBI Governor added that there is no change in growth forecast as of now. He also said that good monsoon should cap inflationary pressures.
Indian PMI(services) eased to 54 in April.
Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that 742k jobs were added by pvt sector in US last month. ISM (non mfrg) dipped to 62.7.
-EU PMI(services) was finalized at 50.5 and PPI climbed 1.1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims
-EU factory orders, retail sales
-UK PMI(services) and BOE meet.
| USD/INR | 74.04 | 73.78 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.2006 | 1.2025 | 1.1986 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3907 | 1.3927 | 1.3876 | |
| USD/JPY | 109.35 | 109.47 | 109.04 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2006 | 1.2026 | 1.2045 | 1.2065 | 1.1987 | 1.1967 | 1.1948 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3904 | 1.3932 | 1.3955 | 1.3983 | 1.3881 | 1.3853 | 1.3831 |
| USD/JPY | 109.28 | 109.42 | 109.61 | 109.75 | 109.09 | 108.95 | 108.75 |
| USD/INR | 73.91 | 74.04 | 74.17 | 73.78 | 73.65 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1990/1.1935 | 1.2150/1.2240 | UP | DN<1.1935 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3670 | 1.4010/1.4240 | UP | DN<1.3670 |
| USD/JPY | 107.47 | 109.95/111 | UP | DN<107.47 |
| USD/INR | 73.80 | 74.28/74.62/74.90 | SIDE | UP>74.25 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9080 | 0.9220/0.94 | SIDE | UP>0.9220 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.41. 50 day moving average is at 73.35.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 73.80 and important resistance is at 74.28/74.62/74.90. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 74.24, S1:74.11, S2:74.05, R1:74.30, R2: 74.43
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Expect 73.80-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.
Imports hedging should be done on dips to 73.80 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.30.
Importers can hedge EURINR exposure at 88.60.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2150/1.2250. Next major support is at 1.1990 and later at 1.1935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4010 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3670/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 107.47. Next important resistance is at 110/111. Important support is at 107.47
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