USDINR opened at 74.52 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.30-74.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.37, loss of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.66. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.41 on 28/04. May USD/INR closed at 74.71, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.92. May Euro/INR closed at 90.10, GBP/INR at 103.58 and Yen/INR at 68.51.

In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 6980 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 448 Cr worth of Indian debt.in 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.44% y’day. DOW declined 164 points (0.48%).Nikkei climbed 0.21% and Hang seng climbed 0.45%.

Euro is now at 1.2144, Pound at 1.3965, Yen at 108.53.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1786 and WT1Crude at USD 64.05/Brent at USD 66.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.615% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.06%.

Economic news: Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged, and said that while the pace of recovery has improved, there was still a long way to go until the economy achieves its inflation and labor market objectives. “Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement,” the Fed said in a statement.

German Gfk consumer sentiment for May dropped to -8.8, down from -6.2, missed expectation of -4.8. 

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Wednesday’s calendar: -US weekly jobless claims, pending home sales and GDP(advance)

Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 74.13. 50 day moving average is at 73.30.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.30. Important support is at 74.28 and important resistance is at 74.62/74.90/75.30. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 74.75, S1:74.56, S2:74.43, R1:74.89, R2: 75.07                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

An upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.80-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Imports hedging should be done on dips to 74.30 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50.

Importers can hedge EURINR exposure at 88.60.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2245/1.2345. Next major support is at 1.1990 and later at 1.1835. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3725/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 50, but above 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.97. Next important resistance is at 108.40/109.40. Important support is at 106.25.

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