USDINR opened at 75.02 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.75-75.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.02, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.95. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.93 on 23/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.06, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.15. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.46, GBP/INR at 104.20 and Yen/INR at 69.59. RBI sold USD through PSU banks to stem Rupee weakness.

In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 6980 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 448 Cr worth of Indian debt.in 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.45% on Friday. DOW climbed 227 points (0.67%).Nikkei declined 0.57% and Hang seng climbed 1.12%.

Euro closed the week at 1.2100, Pound at 1.3883, Yen at 107.88.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1777 and WT1Crude at USD 62/Brent at USD 66.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.57% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.06%.

Economic news: Euro surged on upbeat economic data from EU. EU PMI (mfrg and services) climbed steeply. Gold rallied and Crude Oil was mixed last week. Focus is on US FOMC meeting and US Q1 GDP data.

Data highlights: – US new home sales climbed to 1021k.

-EU PMI (mfrg) climbed to 63.3, PMI (services) entered into expansion mode at 50.3.

-UK PMI (mfrg) climbed to 60.7, PMI (services) expanded to 60.1 and retail sales climbed 5.4% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: – US Durables order

Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.81. 50 day moving average is at 73.21.200 day moving average is at 73.76. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.62/74.28 and important resistance is at 75.35/75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 75.03, S1:74.82, S2:74.58, R1:75.27, R2: 75.48                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.80-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Imports hedging should be done on dips to 74.30 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50.

Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure at 92.30.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.2245/1.2345. Next major support is at 1.1990 and later at 1.1835. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3725/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.4010/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 , but above 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.97. Next important resistance is at 108.40/109.40. Important support is at 106.25.

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