USDINR opened at 74.64 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 74.62-75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.88, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 74.35. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.74 on 20/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.15, gain of 20 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.95. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.55, GBP/INR at 105.03 and Yen/INR at 69.31.

In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 1653 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 2656 Cr worth of Indian debt.in 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.44% on Tuesday. DOW climbed 316 points (0.93%).Nikkei declined 2.03% and Hang seng declined 1.76% .

Euro is now at 1.2038, Pound at 1.3984, Yen at 108.19.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1794 and WT1Crude at USD 61.20/Brent at USD 65.15.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.55% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.09%.

Economic news: Indian stocks declined and Rupee decline to 76+ looks imminent due to renewed concern over severe spread of corona virus. Some other countries including Japan are facing threat of a severe spread of infection. Indian PM said that lock down should be a last resort and asked states to focus on testing and micro containment strategy. Indians above 18 can get vaccinated soon.

Data highlights: – UK claimant count change was reported at 10.1k and unemployment rate dipped to 4.9%. CPI climbed 0.7% y/y. RPI climbed 1.5% y/y, PPI (output) climbed 0.5% m/m

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims, existing home sales

-EU consumer confidence.

Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.56. 50 day moving average is at 73.15.200 day moving average is at 73.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.62/74.28 and important resistance is at 75.35/75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 74.96, S1:74.74, S2:74.34, R1:75.36, R2: 75.58                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.80-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 73.80 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50.

Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.20/1.21. Next major support is at 1.1845. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.3920/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.97. Next important resistance is at 111/112.20. Important support is at 108.35/107.50.

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