18/07/2018

USDINR opened lower at 68.38 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.28-68.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.46, loss of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.57.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.30.July USD/INR closed at 68.53, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.66. July Euro/INR closed at 80.34, GBP/INR at 90.59 and Yen/INR at 60.96.

FII’S have sold Rs 1377 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1951 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 160 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 43269 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.65% y’day. DOW climbed 55 points (0.52%) Y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.44%  and Hang seng declined 1.25% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1654, Pound at 1.3112,Yen at 112.94.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1227 and WT1Crude at USD 66.91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.86% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.74%.        

Economic news: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a Congressional testimony there were “several years” of strong jobs and low inflation still ahead for the U.S. economy.Powell discounted the risk that a trade war may throw a global recovery off track and signaled that he not only believes the economy is doing well, but that an era of stable growth may continue provided the Fed gets its policy decisions right.

European Union and Japan signed an unprecedented free trade agreement in Tokyo y’day. 

Data Highlights : – US industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m and TIC purchases was at USD 45.6 bn

-UK unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% and claimant count change was reported at 7.8k.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US building permits, housing starts and beige book

-EU CPI

-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 68.52. 50 day moving average is at 67.99. 200 day moving average is at 65.55. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.09 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 68.47,S1:68.40, S2:68.28, R1:68.59, R2:68.66.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.3050.           

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 111.40/110.85. Important resistance is  113.70.