USDINR opened at 74.98 on Monday and the pair traded in the 74.74-75.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.05, gain of 31 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.87 on 12/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.21, gain of 40 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.81. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.58, GBP/INR at 103.45 and Yen/INR at 68.80. Markets were closed on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rupee decline continued. Rupee weakened to 75.16. RBI sold USD at higher levels to stem steep fall. USDINR fwd premia softened with 1 year premia declining to 4.50%.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (12/04) |
| USDINR | 74.87 |
| EURINR | 89 |
| GBPINR | 102.61 |
| JPYINR | 68.31 |
In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 1536 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 1129 Cr worth of Indian debt. In the 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.36% on Monday. DOW climbed 53 points (0.16%).Nikkei climbed 0.28% and Hang seng climbed 1.42% .
Euro is now at 1.1987, Pound at 1.3790,Yen at 108.88.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1738 and WT1Crude at USD 62.78/Brent at USD 66.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.64% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.01%.
Economic news: March CPI climbed 5.52% as against 5.03% in Feb. Core inflation climbed to 6.09% from 5.6%. Average inflation for last fiscal stood at 6.2%. IIP Contracted -3.6% in Feb.
Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.6% m/m.
-UK industrial production climbed 1% m/m and manufacturing climbed 1.3% m/m.
-German Zew sentiment declines steeply to 70.7 and EUR Zew survey also declined to 66.3.
-EU industrial production declined -1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: US retail sales, weekly jobless claims.
-US NY and Phily fed mfrg index. Industrial production.
| USD/INR | 75.16 | 74.74 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1987 | 1.1988 | 1.1953 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3790 | 1.3808 | 1.3750 | |
| USD/JPY | 108.88 | 109.10 | 108.75 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| currency pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1974 | 1.1997 | 1.2011 | 1.2035 | 1.1960 | 1.1937 | 1.1923 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3779 | 1.3808 | 1.3837 | 1.3866 | 1.3750 | 1.3721 | 1.3691 |
| USD/JPY | 108.91 | 109.07 | 109.25 | 109.41 | 108.72 | 108.57 | 108.38 |
| USD/INR | 74.98 | 75.22 | 75.40 | 74.80 | 74.56 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1835/1.17 | 1.1990 | DN | UP>1.1990 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3675/1.3560 | 1.3920/1.4240 | SIDE | UP>1.40 |
| USD/JPY | 108.50/107.20/105.50 | 111/112.20 | SIDE | UP>111 |
| USD/INR | 74.50/74 | 75.50 | UP | SIDE<73.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.91 | 0.9475 | SIDE | UP>0.9475 |
Technicals: Spot closed closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.15. 50 day moving average is at 73.200 day moving average is at 73.80. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.50/74 and important resistance is at 75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP: 75.17, S1:74.89, S2:74.58, R1:75.48, R2: 75.76
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 74.50-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.
Importer hedging should be done on dips to 74 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50.
Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3920 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.3920/1.40/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/107.50.
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