USDINR opened at 74.78 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.67-75.12 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.74 , gain of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.61. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.91 on 09/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 74.81, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.81. Apr Euro/INR closed at 88.91, GBP/INR at 102.58 and Yen/INR at 68.25.

Rupee decline continued. Rupee weakened to 74.96. RBI’S QE and rising corona infection are primary reasons for Rupee fall. USDINR fwd premia softened with 1 year premia declining to 4.50%.

In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 1536 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 1129 Cr worth of Indian debt.In 2020-21 finanacial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.20% on Friday. DOW climbed 297 points (0.89%).Nikkei declined 0.07% and Hang seng climbed 1.07% .

Euro closed the week at 1.1898,Pound at 1.3706,Yen at 109.67.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1744 and WT1Crude at USD 59.34/Brent at USD 63.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.66% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.01%.

Economic news: Fed Chairman said that inflation is transitory and will be taken note of only when it is persistent and above target levels.

Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 1% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: Indian IIP, CPI

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.97. 50 day moving average is at 72.95.200 day moving average is at 73.80. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.50/74 and important resistance is at 74.95/75.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP:74.86,S1:74.60, S2:74.41, R1:75.06, R2: 75.31                       

Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.30-74.90 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 74 and exports hedging can be deferred.

Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure.

 CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3920 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.3920/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/107.50.

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