USDINR opened at 73.55 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.51-74.56 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.56 , gain of  One Rupee and 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.42. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.03 on 07/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 74.56, gain of 89 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.67. Apr Euro/INR closed at 88.61, GBP/INR at 102.98 and Yen/INR at 67.90.

Rupee declined on stop loss buying and lower G-SEC yield. Rupee remained decoupled from USD performance till last month. It is now catching up with USD performance against majors and EM Currencies.

In 2020-21 finanacial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.92% y’day. DOW climbed 16 points (0.05%).Nikkei climbed 0.12% and Hang seng declined 0.91% .

Euro is now at 1.1877,Pound at 1.3838,Yen at 109.64.      

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1735 and WT1Crude at USD 59.35/Brent at USD 62.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.67% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.12%.

Economic news: RBI maintained status quo on rates. Repo was left unchanged at 4%. RBI maintained an accommodative stance and expects GDP to climb by 10.5% in 2022. RBI’s decision to by Rs 1 lac Cr worth of G-SEC’S weighed down on yields and possibly triggered Rupee decline. This move is considered inflationary.

Fed minutes reiterated its commitment to keep interest rates low until the U.S. economy makes a more secure recovery.

Data highlights: – EU PMI(services) climbed to 49.6.

-UK PMI(services) was finalised at 56.3.

Thursday’s calendar: US Weekly jobless claims

-German factory orders and PPI

-UK PMI(construction)

Daily Support/Resistance table

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.89. 50 day moving average is at 72.89.200 day moving average is at 73.85. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.05/73.80 and important resistance is at 74.88 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP:74.27,S1:73.76, S2:72.97, R1:75.06, R2: 75.57                       

Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.30-74.90 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 73.40 and exports hedging can be deferred.

Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure.

 CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.3840/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.

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