USDINR opened at 73.24 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.21-73.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.42 , gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.32. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.30 on 06/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 73.67, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.55. Apr Euro/INR closed at 86.98, GBP/INR at 101.85 and Yen/INR at 66.75.

In 2020-21 finanacial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.31% y’day. DOW declined 97 points (0.29%).Nikkei declined 1.30% and Hang seng climbed 1.97% .

Euro is now at 1.1877,Pound at 1.3838,Yen at 109.64.      

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1740 and WT1Crude at USD 59.45/Brent at USD 64.67.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.67% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.12%.

Economic news: IMF upgraded growth forecast for advanced economy and the whole world in 2021. Global output growth forecast is raised by 0.5% to 6.0% in 2021, and by 0.2% to 4.4% in 2022. US growth is upgraded by 0.8% to 5.1% in 2021, and by 0.5% to 3.6% in 2022. Eurozone growth was raised slightly by 0.2% to 4.4% in 2021, and by 0.2% to 3.8% in 2022. Indian growth is expected to be 12.5% in 2021.

 RBI policy is in focus. RBI will maintain status quo and express concern over new tide of infection. FOMC minutes is another key event for the week.

Data highlights: – US ISM(services) climbed steeply to 63.7 and factory orders declined -0.8% m/m.

-EU sentix investor confidence index jumped to 13.

Wednesday’s calendar: EU PMI(services)

-UK PMI(services)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed closed above 20 and 50/100 major moving averages, but still below 200 day average. 20 day moving average is at 72.81. 50 day moving average is at 72.85.200 day moving average is at 73.85. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 73.05/72.70 and important resistances are at 73.78/74 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP:73.59,S1:73.48, S2:73.31, R1:73.77, R2: 73.87                        

Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.40 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.

EURINR has entered bearish mode.Exporters can hedge on uptick to 87.50/88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.

 CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.3840/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.

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