USDINR opened at 73.59 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 73.05-73.59 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.11 , loss of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.38. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.51 on 31/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 73.45, loss of 38 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.83. Apr Euro/INR closed at 86.25, GBP/INR at 101.13 and Yen/INR at 66.45.

In 2020-21 finanacial Year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.20% on Friday. DOW climbed 171 points (0.52%).Nikkei climbed 1.58% and Hang seng climbed 1.97% .

Euro closed at 1.1764,Pound at 1.3836,Yen at 109.65.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1730 and WT1Crude at USD 61.45/Brent at USD 64.67.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.68% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.17%.

 Economic news:  

Indian Exports jumped 58% to USD 34 bn, highest export data. Imports also jumped to USD 48 bn. March trade deficit stands at USD 14 bn.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 916,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since last August. Data for February was revised higher to show 468,000 jobs.

Data highlights: – Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 62.5 in March, up from February’s 57.9.

-UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.9 in March, up from February’s 55.1. That’s the highest level in 121 months since February 2011. 

Monday’s calendar: US ISM(services) and factory orders

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed closed above 20 and 50/100 major moving averages, but still below 200 day average. 20 day moving average is at 72.77. 50 day moving average is at 72.85.200 day moving average is at 73.85. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 73.05/72.70 and important resistances are at 73.78/74 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP:73.53,S1:73.19, S2:72.94, R1:73.78, R2: 74.12                       

Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.40 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.

EURINR has entered bearish mode.Exporters can hedge on uptick to 87.50/88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.

 CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.3840/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.

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