USDINR opened at 72.82 Y’day and the pair traded in the 72.77-73.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.38 , gain of 86 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.52. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.76 on 26/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 73.83, gain of 86 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.97. Apr Euro/INR closed at 86.69, GBP/INR at 101.49 and Yen/INR at 66.97.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (26/03)|
FII’S nett bought Rs 18728 Cr of Indian Equities in Mar (as on 25/3) . FII’S nett sold Rs 6411 Cr of Indian debt securities in March (as on 25/3) . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 284583 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 37035 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 2.33% y’day. DOW declined 104 points (0.31%).Nikkei climbed 0.16% and Hang seng climbed 0.84% .
Euro is now at 1.1722,Pound at 1.3787,Yen at 109.65.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1684 and WT1Crude at USD 60.75/Brent at USD 64.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.72% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.16%.
Economic news: In a stunning reversal, Rupee declined steeply by 83 ps. Stop loss buying and PSU’S bid for USD were cited as reasons for Rupee fall. USD’S recent strength against majors also acted as a catalyst. US treasury yields jumped higher to 1.72% on vaccine optimism.
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) jumped to 101 in March, up from 93.4, above the expectation of 96. It’s now slightly above its long-term average since the pandemic began.
Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 1% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar: US ADP employment report and pending home sales.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 20 and 50/100 major moving averages, but still below 200 day average. 20 day moving average is at 72.80. 50 day moving average is at 72.85.200 day moving average is at 73.95. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying the bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 73.05/72.70 and important resistances are at 73.78/74 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP:73.57,S1:73.24, S2:72.66, R1:74.15, R2: 74.48
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However, on the directional basis, suggest the following:
An upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi-month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.50 trading range till either side is broken.
Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.40 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.
EURINR has entered the bearish mode. Exporters can hedge on uptick to 87.50/88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near the payment period.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.40/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.
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