USDINR opened at 72.52 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.37-72.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.52 , loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.62. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.65 on 24/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 72.97, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.06. Apr Euro/INR closed at 86, GBP/INR at 100.48 and Yen/INR at 66.66.
FII’S nett bought Rs 18728 Cr of Indian Equities in Mar (as on 25/3) . FII’S nett sold Rs 6411 Cr of Indian debt securities in March (as on 25/3) . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 284583 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 37035 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.27% on Friday. DOW climbed 453 points on Friday(1.39%).Nikkei climbed 1.56% and Hang seng declined 0.07% .
Euro closed the week at 1.1795,Pound at 1.3787,Yen at 109.65.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1731 and WT1Crude at USD 60.75/Brent at USD 64.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.66% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.16%.
Economic news: Global Equities recovered on Friday. Rupee declined towards close of the day. USD continues to show traction.
Despite lockdown restrictions, the German Ifo survey climbed higher and the institute official said that “Companies were clearly more satisfied with their current business situation. Optimism about the coming months has also returned. Despite the rising rate of infections, the German economy is entering the spring with confidence.”
Data highlights: – US Personal income declined -7.1% m/m, spending declined -1% and Core PCE index slowed to 1.4% y/y.
-German Ifo survey rose to 96.6.
-UK retail sales climbed 2.1% m/m.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.80. 50 day moving average is at 72.85.200 day moving average is at 73.95. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.78. Important support is at 72.30 and important resistances are at 72.85/73.05/73.20 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Apr contract are:
PP:72.94,S1:72.80, S2:72.64, R1:73.10, R2: 73.24
Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.50 trading range till either side is broken.
Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.40 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.
EURINR has entered the bearish mode. Exporters can hedge on uptick to 87.50/88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1990. Next major support is at 1.16. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1990. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.40/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.
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