USDINR opened at 72.69 Y’day and the pair traded in the 72.57-72.69 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.62 , gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.56. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.29 on 23/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 72.64, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.68. Mar Euro/INR closed at 85.86, GBP/INR at 99.67 and Yen/INR at 66.61.
FII’S nett bought Rs 22373 Cr of Indian Equities in Mar (as on 18/3) . FII’S nett sold Rs 8723 Cr of Indian debt securities in March (as on 18/3) . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 280938 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 39347 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.54% y’day. DOW climbed 99 points y’day(0.62%).Nikkei climbed 1.14% and Hang seng declined 0.07% .
Euro is now at 1.1785,Pound at 1.3763,Yen at 109.20.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1725 and WT1Crude at USD 59/Brent at USD 62.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.63% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.16%.
Economic news: Rupee traded steady in a tight range. Indian Equity indices fell 1.56%. Equity markets are trending lower due to concern over rising Corona cases. RBI Governor said that economic growth will be unabated despite rising infections. Fitch upgraded Indian GDP growth for coming fiscal due to swift recovery. FII’S sold Rs 5442 cr of Equities in last 3 days.
Fed Chairman said that 2021 is going to be stronger than previously thought, because of a “combination of better developments” including vaccines and fiscal stimulus.
He added :“As we make substantial further progress towards our goals we will gradually roll back” the asset purchase program. He emphasized, the “process will take place with the greatest transparency.” And that would only happen “when the economy is all but fully recovered.”
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 684k.
Friday’s calendar: US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index.
-German Ifo survey.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.79. 50 day moving average is at 72.85.200 day moving average is at 73.95. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.78. Important support is at 72.30 and important resistances are at 72.85/73.05/73.20 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP:72.65,S1:72.56, S2:72.49, R1:72.72, R2: 72.81
Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.80 trading range till either side is broken.
Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.30 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.
EURINR has entered bearish mode.Exporters can hedge on uptick to 87.50/88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 moving average, but above 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.1845. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1845. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3760/1.3565 . Important resistances are at 1.40/1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 109.40/112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.
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