USDINR opened at 72.58 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.51-72.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.55 , unchanged for USD as against prior close of 72.55. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.48 on 16/03Mar USD/INR closed at 72.67, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.62. Mar Euro/INR closed at 86.51, GBP/INR at 101.05 and Yen/INR at 66.60.

FII’S nett bought Rs 4749 Cr of Indian Equities in Mar (as on 12/3) . FII’S nett sold Rs 8615 Cr of Indian debt securities in March (as on 10/3) . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 263314 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  39239 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.27% y’day. DOW climbed 189 points(0.58%).Nikkei declined 0.02% and Hang seng climbed 0.02% .

Euro is now at 1.1976,Pound at 1.3957,Yen at 109.08.      

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1752 and WT1Crude at USD 64.45/Brent at USD 67.87.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.644% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.17%.

Economic news: Fed kept monetary policy and rates unchanged and projected a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth this year as the COVID-19 crisis eases. Surge in inflation is expected to be temporary. US GDP is expected to climb to 6.5% this year and inflation could climb to 2.4%.

German GDP is expected to contract by -2% in Q1 due to rise in infections.

Japanese export dropped -4.5% yoy to JPY 6038B in February, much worse than expectation of -0.5% yoy. Imports rose 11.8% yoy to JPY 5821B, slightly below expectation of 11.9% yoy.

Data highlights: – US building permits declined to 1.68mn, housing starts dipped to 1.42 mn.

-EU CPI climbed 0.9% y/y.

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims and Phily Fed index

-BOE meeting.

USD/INR   72.62 72.51
EUR/USD 1.1976 1.1987 1.1887
GBP/USD 1.3957 1.3976 1.3851
USD/JPY 109.08 109.32 108.71

Daily Support/Resistance table

currency pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1952 1.2017 1.2052 1.2118 1.1917 1.1852 1.1817
GBP/USD 1.3934 1.4017 1.4059 1.4141 1.3892 1.3809 1.3767
USD/JPY 108.98


109.25 109.60 109.87 108.64 108.36




USD/INR 72.56 72.61 72.67   72.50 72.45  


Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1810 1.1990/1.2110 SIDE DN<1.18
GBP/USD 1.3760/1.3560 1.4020/1.4240 UP SIDE<1.3760
USD/JPY 108.35/106.20 110/112.20 UP DN<106.20
USD/INR 72.60/72.30 73.25/73.50/73.80 SIDE UP>73.80
USD/CHF 0.92/0.91 0.9375/0.9540 UP DN<0.9050

 Technicals: Spot closed closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.82. 50 day moving average is at 72.95.200 day moving average is at 74.08. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.78. Important support is at 72.30 and important resistances are at 72.60/72.95/73.30 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Mar contract are:

PP:72.69,S1:72.58, S2:72.49, R1:72.78, R2: 72.89                       

Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.80 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.30 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.

EURINR has entered bearish mode.Exporters can hedge on uptick to 88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.


EURO/USDThe pair is below 50 moving average, but above 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2245. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3760/1.3565 . Important resistance is at 1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 110/112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.

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