USDINR opened at 72.66 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.63-72.85 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.79 , loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.91. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.97 on 10/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 72.90, loss of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.14. Mar Euro/INR closed at 86.94, GBP/INR at 101.45 and Yen/INR at 66.90.
FII’S nett bought Rs 4749 Cr of Indian Equities in Mar (as on 12/3) . FII’S nett sold Rs 8615 Cr of Indian debt securities in March (as on 10/3) . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 263314 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 39239 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.95% on Friday. DOW climbed 293 points(0.90%).Nikkei climbed 1.73% and Hang seng declined 2.20% .
Euro is now at 1.1952,Pound at 1.3922,Yen at 109.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1725 and WT1Crude at USD 65.57/Brent at USD 69.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.54% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.23%.
Economic news: Indian CPI climbed to 5.03% in Feb due to surge in Food prices. Food inflation jumped to 3.87%.IIP contracted -1.6% in Jan. Manufacturing sector output contracted by 2.0 per cent in January, while the mining output declined by 3.7 per cent. Power generation grew by 5.5% in January.
UK GDP contracted -2.90% mom in January, better than expectation of -4.9% mom.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 2.8% y/y, highest reading since 2018.
-EU industrial production climbed 0.8% m/m.
-UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -4.9% y/y and -5.2% y/y respectively.
Monday’s calendar: – NY mfrg index
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 72.85. 50 day moving average is at 72.98.02.200 day moving average is at 74.08. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 72.60/72.30 and important resistances are at 73.25/73.50/73.80 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Mar contract are:
PP:72.89,S1:72.77, S2:72.65, R1:73.01, R2: 73.13
Hedging strategy : Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Upside break of 74 could end Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 72.30-73.80 trading range till either side is broken.
Importer hedging should be done on dips to 72.30 and exports can be sold till 73.80 is not broken. If 73.80 is broken, exporters could wait for a higher level to hedge.
EURINR has entered bearish mode.Exporters can hedge on uptick to 88 and importers can buy EURINR for hedging near payment period.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 moving average, but above 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2245. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4240 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3760/1.3565 . Important resistance is at 1.4250.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 110/112.20. Important support is at 108.35/106.20.
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