USDINR opened at 72.76 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 72.65-72.79 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.65 , loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.75. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.83 on 17/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 72.63, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.80. Feb Euro/INR closed at 87.71, GBP/INR at 101.22 and Yen/INR at 68.78. FX market was closed on Friday.
FII’S nett bought Rs 26336 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb . FII’S nett sold Rs 692 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 256983 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 25886 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.91% on Friday. DOW closed flat on Friday(0%).Nikkei declined 0.72% and Hang seng declined 0.16% .
Euro closed the week at 1.2119,Pound at 1.4014
,Yen at 105.43.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1783 and WT1Crude at USD 59.05/Brent at USD 62.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.34% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.13%.
Economic news: Indian bond yields surged last week. Rupee gained despite tapering off inflows last week.
US January retail sales climbed 5.3% m/m in Jan and the report highlights the role of fiscal policy in boosting consumer spending.
Data highlights: – US existing home sales climbed to 6.69 mn.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) climbed to 57.7 and PMI(services-flash) dipped to 44.7.
-UK retail sales declined -8.2% m/m and PMI(mfrg) climbed to 54.9.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 72.79 | 72.65 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2119 | 1.2145 | 1.2082 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4014 | 1.4037 | 1.3951 |
| USD/JPY | 105.43 | 105.75 | 105.24 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2115 | 1.2148 | 1.2178 | 1.2085 | 1.2052 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.40 | 1.4050 | 1.4086 | 1.3963 | 1.3914 | ||
| USD/JPY | 105.47
|
105.70 | 105.98 | 105.19 | 104.96
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 72.70 | 72.74 | 72.84 | 72.61 | 72.56 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1950 | 1.2145/1.2220/1.2350 | SIDE | UP>1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3565 | 1.4050 | UP | DN<1.3565 |
| USD/JPY | 104.40 | 105.70/106.20 | SIDE | DN<103.95 |
| USD/INR | 72.40 | 72.90/73.10 | DN | SIDE>73.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8890 | 0.8990/0.9045 | DN | UP>0.9045 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 72.89. 50 day moving average is at 73.18.200 day moving average is at 74.27. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.40 and important resistance is at 73.10/73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP:72.69,S1:72.53, S2:72.45, R1:72.78, R2: 72.93.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 moving average, but above 100 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2150. Major support is at 1.1950. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1950. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3565 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3565 . Important resistance is at 1.4050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.40. Next important resistance is at 106.20. Important support is at 104.40/104.
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