FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                     

USDINR opened at 72.99 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.79-72.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.92 , loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.96. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.91 on 04/02Feb USD/INR closed at 73.08, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.13. Feb Euro/INR closed at 87.57, GBP/INR at 99.95 and Yen/INR at 69.25.

FII’S nett bought Rs 15136 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb . FII’S nett bought Rs 398 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 245783 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  24864 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.19% on Friday. DOW climbed 92 points(0.38%).Nikkei climbed 1.54% and Hang seng climbed 0.60% .

Euro closed the week at 1.2042,Pound at 1.3733,Yen at 105.36.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1815 and WT1Crude at USD 57.08/Brent at USD 59.20.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.13% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.12%.

Economic news: RBI kept rates and monetary stance steady. As per RBI Projection, GDP is expected to be 10.5% for next fiscal and inflation is expected to be between 5 and 5.2%. 10 year yield continues to firm up.

US non-farm payroll employment rose only 49k in January, well below expectation of 85k. Unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, down from 6.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom.

Data highlights: – As above

Monday’s calendar: -EU sentix investor confidence survey and German industrial production.

USD/INR   72.97 72.90
EUR/USD 1.2042 1.2043 1.1957
GBP/USD 1.3733 1.3742 1.3660
USD/JPY 105.36 105.78 105.33

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2014 1.2071 1.2100    1.1985 1.1928  
GBP/USD 1.3711 1.3763  1.3793    1.3680 1.3629  
USD/JPY 105.49


105.65   105.94   105.20 105.04




USD/INR 72.90 73.01 73.10   72.81 72.70


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1950 1.2220 SIDE UP>1.2235
GBP/USD 1.3565 1.3760 UP DN<1.3565
USD/JPY 104.40 105.70 UP DN<103.95
USD/INR 72.75 73.50/73.65 DN SIDE>73.95
USD/CHF 0.8755 0.8990/0.9030 DN UP>0.9030

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.06. 50 day moving average is at 73.37.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.75 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP:73.06,S1:72.94, S2:72.81, R1:73.19, R2: 73.31.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USDThe pair is below 20 and 50 moving averages, but above 100 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3760 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3565 . Important resistance is at 1.3760.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 105.70. Important support is at 104.40.


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