USDINR opened at 72.87 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.83-73.14 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.03 , gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.95. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.95 on 29/01. Feb USD/INR closed at 73.31, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.16. Feb Euro/INR closed at 88.57, GBP/INR at 100.46 and Yen/INR at 69.91.
FII’S nett bought Rs 18855 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 3473 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 230647 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 25262 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 4.74% y’day. DOW climbed 229 points(0.76%).Nikkei climbed 1.55% and Hang seng climbed 2.14% .
Euro is now at 1.2074,Pound at 1.3684,Yen at 104.85.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1862 and WT1Crude at USD 53.90/Brent at USD 56.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.08% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.06%.
Economic news: Indian GST Collections grew by 8% to record level of 1.2 lac Cr in Dec. PMI(mfrg) surged to 57.7.
Budget increased capital expenditure spending with focus on health, infrastructure and agri credit. No new taxes were levied. Asset reconstruction bank, monetization of PSU and rly assets are bold steps. 2 PSU banks and I Insurance Company will be privatized. Insurance FDI enhanced to 74%. Fiscal deficit for this fiscal will be at 9.5% and 6.5% for next year. Market borrowing is expected to be around Rs 12 lac Cr.
Equity indices led by banking sector surged 5%. Yields surged on increased Govt borrowings. 10 year G-SEC climbed to 6.06%.
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 58.7.
-EU PMI(mfrg-final) was reported at 54.8 and German retail sales declined -9.6% m/m.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was reported at 54.1.
Tuesday’s calendar: – No major data.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.10. 50 day moving average is at 73.46.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.75 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP:73.19,S1:73.12, S2:73.07, R1:73.24, R2: 73.31.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 moving average, but still above 50 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1,2050/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3760.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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