USDINR opened at 73.03 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.93-73.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.95 , loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.06 on 28/01. Feb USD/INR closed at 73.16, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.27. Feb Euro/INR closed at 88.77, GBP/INR at 100.19 and Yen/INR at 69.86.
FII’S nett bought Rs 18855 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 3473 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 230647 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 25262 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.32% on Friday. DOW climbed 620 points( 2.03%).Nikkei declined 1.89% and Hang seng declined 0.94% .
Euro closed the week at 1.2138,Pound at 1.3702,Yen at 104.68.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1849 and WT1Crude at USD 52.10/Brent at USD 55.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.07% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: Focus is on Budget. Markets declined steeply, nervous of new taxes on capital gains. German GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 0.0% qoq. DeStatis said in Q4, “the recovery process slowed due to the second coronavirus wave and another lockdown imposed at the end of the year.
Data highlights: – US personal income climbed 0.6% m/m, spending declined -0.2% m/m, core PCE index climbed 1.5% y/y and pending home sales declined -0.3% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg)
-EU PMI(mfrg-final) and German retail sales
-UK PMI(mfrg)
| USD/INR | 73.03 | 72.93 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2138 | 1.2156 | 1.2093 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3702 | 1.3752 | 1.3657 |
| USD/JPY | 104.68 | 104.95 | 104.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2129 | 1.2165 | 1.2192 | 1.2102 | 1.2066 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3703 | 1.3750 | 1.3799 | 1.3654 | 1.3607 | ||
| USD/JPY | 104.61
|
105.01 | 105.35 | 104.27 | 103.87
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 72.97 | 73.01 | 73.07 | 72.91 | 72.87 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2050/1.1950 | 1.2220 | SIDE | UP>1.2235 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3760 | UP | DN<1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 102.60 | 105.70 | UP | DN<103.95 |
| USD/INR | 72.75 | 73.50/73.65 | DN | SIDE>73.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8755 | 0.8990/0.9030 | DN | UP>0.9030 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.10. 50 day moving average is at 73.48.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.75 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP:73.19,S1:73.12, S2:73.07, R1:73.24, R2: 73.31.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 moving average, but still above 50 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1,2050/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3760.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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